Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Iflationistas think a major inflationary move is at hand and they bet that with futures. I suggest the opposite. A commitment of traders (COT) report for 10-year treasuries shows record bets that...

The markets are moving into their first MAJOR inflationary shift in TEN years.Perhaps the single best metric for measuring inflation vs. deflation in the bond markets is the TIPs to Long US Treasury...

April has come to a close and there are fresh monthly charts to review. The markets have had a roller coaster ride during the first 4 months of 2018. This has resulted in the cadre of pundits getting...

For first time in over four years, the 10-year Treasury rate surpasses three percent, only to raise the possibility that this is as high as it is going to go at least in the short term.After several...

In early March, the 10-year yield was circling 2.87%. Now it is circling 3.00% for the first time in 4 years.The increase is probably shocking to many analysts and investors. Neither economic nor...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators sharply increased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment...

It seems everyone is talking about the yield curve right now. It also seems most economists and investors are quick to dismiss what would typically signal a clear economic warning as nothing worth...

Finally! The 10-year Treasury yield has hit 3 percent. What’s next for the gold market?Here We Are, At 3%So it finally happened. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 3 percent, a level not...

The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate edged up to 3.0% yesterday (April 24) for the first time since 2014, based on daily data published by Treasury.gov. It’s just another number, but the...

The discussion today is much about the 10yr Treas rate breaching above 3%. Higher rates can have an impact on asset prices when compared to Cash Flow Yields as shown in the Dow Jones REIT (DJR) vs...

This week, we're looking at some fresh flash economic data: The Markit flash PMIs. Using GDP weights we can construct a "global flash PMI" and the reason for doing so will become obvious very quickly....

Interest rates have been falling for nearly three decades. Could the trend of lower rates be over? A big test to this trend is in play right now! Above looks at 10 and 30-year yields since early...

I was updating some of my bond strategy charts this morning and one that caught my eye that I thought would be timely and interesting to share is the seasonality charts. No, not the "sell in May"...