Bonds Analysis & Opinion

One year ago, I wrote to you that it was time to buy bonds again. The “index huggers” who only know SPY thought we were nuts for talking fixed income. The popular narrative at the time (which aged...

The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and...

Fixed income as an asset class is looking bullish as Fed Chairman Powell prepares to give a widely anticipated speech this Friday (Aug. 23). The central banker is expected to drop clues about the...

Stock market predictions, of course, are just that—predictions. All of them (including mine!) should be taken with a grain of salt. I normally prefer to avoid making them. But every now and then I...

Signs of cooling inflation and a slowing but still growing economy have helped drive Treasury yields lower across the curve (today’s move notwithstanding). However, the recent shift on the yield...

The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in July. The market rate is still well above the model’s estimate,...

Year-to-date returns for US fixed income are skewing positive this year ahead of the Federal Reserve policy announcement this afternoon. Although the central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged...

Eurozone data continues to challenge the European Central Bank, with German economic contraction and sticky CPI complicating matters. Meanwhile, the Germany 10-Year-United States 10-Year spread has...

Over the weekend we covered the weekly charts of the Economic Modern Family. All the original Modern Family (Russell 2000 (IWM), Retail XRT, Transportation IYT, Regional Banks KRE, Biotechnology...

The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield vs. a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com narrowed to a three-month low in June. The market-based yield is still well above this...

The last time the Fed cut the Fed funds rate, the Fed easing monetary policy started with Janet Yellen in Q4 ’16 and ended with Jay Powell in late 2018. The TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF...

A month ago it was reasonable to wonder if the worst was over for fixed-income securities writ large. Four weeks later, Treasury prices are slightly higher, but the debate continues as investors...

When stocks are in a bull market, we tend to see assets like growth stocks and junk bonds perform well as investors are in “risk-on” mode. And oftentimes, these are the assets to start...

The 10-year notes, or "ZN's" are nearing some key resistance. The 50dma and 200dma (orange/red) moving averages have been intertwined for most of 2024 as price action has consolidated in this tight...