Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield well above its estimated “fair value,” based on the average of three models run by CapitalSpectator.com.Yesterday’s...

The fundamental outlook for bonds remains questionable at best. The leading indicators of growth and inflation for 2024 suggest both dynamics could put upside pressure on yields. Sentiment toward...

The bond market has struggled to fully recover from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive run of interest-rate hikes in 2022-2023, but pockets of strength remain conspicuous. Within the fixed-income...

The 10-year treasury bond yield is very closely watched by banks, consumers, and active investors. It is used as a measuring stick for interest rates on loans, bond auctions, etc. When the...

With the FOMC meeting announcement this coming Wednesday, March 29th, 2024, and Wall Street and the investment community still talking about potential interest rate cuts, it can’t be helped but...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade well above a ‘fair value’ estimate, based on the average of three models maintained by CapitalSpectator.com.The market premium continues to...

Even if US yields do slip into the weekend, as is quite possible, there are elements next week that will keep the bear phase element to the fore for bonds (watch core PCE carefully). The ECB simply...

Yesterday I outlined the case that several ‘fair-value’ models suggest the current US 10-year Treasury yield appears high relative to the fundamentals.As a quick follow-up, what does a...

The US 10-year Treasury yield spiked yesterday following the release of hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data in January.The news also convinced the market that the Federal Reserve would push...

Much of the global bond market is struggling this year, with a conspicuous exception: below-investment-grade bonds issued by companies in emerging markets.Based on year-to-date results through...

By Padhraic GarveyMarkets are awaiting Tuesday’s US CPI release which should give confirmation that the disinflation trend continues. But that's not enough, as a consensus month-on-month outcome...

Modest gains in some corners of fixed income contrast with sharp losses elsewhere for year-to-date results with the broadly defined US bond market, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close...

By Michiel TukkerThe US economy has surprised to the upside over the past few weeks but yields have not shown much reaction to this narrative. We see this as one of the reasons why US yields may test...

By Benjamin SchroederA lack of notable data releases allows EUR rates to look up again amid hawkish central bank talk. Banking jitters continue to add volatility, but scanning the usual indicators of...