Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The US 10-year Treasury yield spiked yesterday following the release of hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data in January.The news also convinced the market that the Federal Reserve would push...

Much of the global bond market is struggling this year, with a conspicuous exception: below-investment-grade bonds issued by companies in emerging markets.Based on year-to-date results through...

By Padhraic GarveyMarkets are awaiting Tuesday’s US CPI release which should give confirmation that the disinflation trend continues. But that's not enough, as a consensus month-on-month outcome...

Modest gains in some corners of fixed income contrast with sharp losses elsewhere for year-to-date results with the broadly defined US bond market, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close...

By Michiel TukkerThe US economy has surprised to the upside over the past few weeks but yields have not shown much reaction to this narrative. We see this as one of the reasons why US yields may test...

By Benjamin SchroederA lack of notable data releases allows EUR rates to look up again amid hawkish central bank talk. Banking jitters continue to add volatility, but scanning the usual indicators of...

We’ve been here before. In the spring of 2023, the bond market rallied sharply, effectively forecasting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.But the punt turned to tears as the Federal Reserve...

The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate hikes and inflation data seems to be leveling off. We’ll see.All in all, bond yields (interest rates) are pulling back and investors are hopeful...

Reference Inflationary Yield Curve Steepening? from January 11.In my opinion, after the secondary extreme inversion of the 10-2 yield curve in July a new yield curve steepener was in the bag. That is...

By Benjamin SchroederUS 5-year auction was rough, but Thursday's core PCE should be tame – what then? Likely yields lower, but only temporarily. The ECB takes centre stage with Lagarde...

By Benjamin SchroederA large sense of anticipation ahead of data dominates thinking, but so too do technical issues like the ongoing unwind of the March rate cut in the US and the rebuild of the...

By Benjamin SchroederMarkets continue to discount early rate cuts, but central banks are pushing back against premature cuts and stressing the data-dependent approach. Long-end rates continue to drift...

By Benjamin SchroederEUR curves bear flattened at the start of the week with the European Central Bank leaning against aggressive market pricing. The message remains consistent – much of the...

While it is far from the only important indicator for the markets, the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread is very important because it takes what is probably the most important market for macro...