Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Are long bonds and interest rates the current political football? Sure seems that way considering all the FED talk and comments by Trump on rates and Jerome Powell. The last couple of days, after...

The market premium for the US 10-year yield over a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in September. The smaller spread extends a downside trend in recent...

A year ago, in early-October, 2023, when the 10-Year US bond yield was at 4.73%, we wrote that it was likely to peak around 5%, before heading back down to 3%. Since we don’t have any special...

There are no absolutes in economic forecasting. Thinking otherwise eventually leads to trouble. Case in point: the recession warning triggered nearly two years ago by an inverted Treasury yield curve...

I recently wrote about a trend that’s making income investors excited: After years of failing to produce decent returns, bonds are back. Media outlets, including Bloomberg, have picked up on this....

The 10yr-2yr yield curve has un-inverted; yet in the media? Crickets Slowly I toined [cue Brooklyn accent], step by step… The 10yr-2yr yield curve un-inverted last week, turning from inversion to...

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this week. The question is whether the bond market has fully priced in the start of policy easing? It’s tempting to say “yes” after reviewing...

The US yield curve is considered to be a good leading indicator of US recession, with an inversion of the curve invariably occurring prior to the start of a recession. However, a Wolf Street article...

2019 was the last year investors saw what could be called a “normal” easing cycle driven by macroeconomic growth concerns and falling S&P 500 EPS estimates. That was the third year of President...

One year ago, I wrote to you that it was time to buy bonds again. The “index huggers” who only know SPY thought we were nuts for talking fixed income. The popular narrative at the time (which aged...

The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and...

Fixed income as an asset class is looking bullish as Fed Chairman Powell prepares to give a widely anticipated speech this Friday (Aug. 23). The central banker is expected to drop clues about the...

Stock market predictions, of course, are just that—predictions. All of them (including mine!) should be taken with a grain of salt. I normally prefer to avoid making them. But every now and then I...

Signs of cooling inflation and a slowing but still growing economy have helped drive Treasury yields lower across the curve (today’s move notwithstanding). However, the recent shift on the yield...