Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The 10-year notes, or "ZN's" are nearing some key resistance. The 50dma and 200dma (orange/red) moving averages have been intertwined for most of 2024 as price action has consolidated in this tight...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to defy The Capital Spectator’s ‘fair-value’ estimate by trading at a premium to this model, but the relatively wide gap still appears to be a constraint to...

The sharp drop in Treasury yields in recent days has revived chatter that the worst for the bond market may be over. It’s still early to confidently forecast that scenario, but the odds for recovery...

Here we go again. After yesterday’s news that US job openings fell to a three-year low in April, the data fueled the incentive for the bond market to reassess the view that the Federal Reserve will...

After a huge down move that began in December 2021, the long bonds or TLT have had a few shallow short-covering rallies, but not much more than that. The “higher-for-longer” for interest rates...

When the US Treasury yield curve inverts (short rates rise above long rates) the shift is widely viewed as a reliable forecast that a recession is near. But this time has been different, or so it...

The stock market keeps on pushing higher despite. Against this backdrop, investors should exercise caution due to high valuations and market cyclicality. Bonds offer attractive returns and can reduce...

The below is Briefing.com’s weekly economic data table. April ’24 PPI and April ’24 CPI are due out Tuesday, May 14th, and Wednesday, May 15th, respectively.Shelter or OER (owners...

Government bond yields and interest rates have been rising all around the world. And investors aren’t quite sure what to make of it.Perhaps there is some complacency that has set in after years...

Bonds are continuing to rally into a fantastic bull trap. Here is the /ZB: The easier-to-trade instrument TLT is obviously sporting the same pattern. We’re just about to close that gap, which...

The one return stat that jumped out at me, was the +0.12% 10-year annual return for the TLT.That’s pretty grim. This is a table updated once a month. The only asset not included is...

Bonds issued by companies with a credit rating of BB or lower by S&P or Fitch, or Ba or lower by Moody's (NYSE:MCO), are considered junk bonds.Junk bonds, or high-yield bonds because the interest...

Bowing to recent data, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday conceded that inflation progress has stalled and the case for rate cuts has weakened.The Treasury market has been effectively...

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield well above its estimated “fair value,” based on the average of three models run by CapitalSpectator.com.Yesterday’s...