Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The job report on Friday delivered a big downside surprise with just 12k jobs created in October. Certainly nowhere near my model’s estimates, but then again, given the size of revisions over the...

The Bond Market is saying “This Time is Different”. The Term Premium is on the rise, and it now sits close to the highest level for the last 10 years. But What is Term Premium? An investor looking...

Like all bonds, municipal bonds are trading at much higher yields on an absolute basis than in decades. A big part of that is the recent rate-hiking cycle that the Fed has embarked upon to curtail...

Credit spreads have narrowed down to the lowest point since the pre-financial crisis period. It echoes the strength in the Stock market (and expensive valuations), and paradoxically is both: 1. a...

How I Use Bond Yields Every Day to Trade Forex. This is probably one of the most important videos you'll watch as a Forex trader. I hope you enjoy it

Earlier this month, while the US 10-year yield was at 3.9670%, we wrote that it was likely headed towards 5.50% in the months ahead. That prediction was based entirely on our Elliott Wave...

Will the summer rally in bonds survive the autumn? Fresh doubts are bubbling as the market reconsiders a range of risk factors, including renewed skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s commitment to...

Stocks were modestly lower, but there was a clear risk-off tone throughout the day as rates rose sharply, along with the dollar. The CDX high-yield credit spread index also moved higher. Despite the...

Are long bonds and interest rates the current political football? Sure seems that way considering all the FED talk and comments by Trump on rates and Jerome Powell. The last couple of days, after...

The market premium for the US 10-year yield over a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in September. The smaller spread extends a downside trend in recent...

A year ago, in early-October, 2023, when the 10-Year US bond yield was at 4.73%, we wrote that it was likely to peak around 5%, before heading back down to 3%. Since we don’t have any special...

There are no absolutes in economic forecasting. Thinking otherwise eventually leads to trouble. Case in point: the recession warning triggered nearly two years ago by an inverted Treasury yield curve...

I recently wrote about a trend that’s making income investors excited: After years of failing to produce decent returns, bonds are back. Media outlets, including Bloomberg, have picked up on this....

The 10yr-2yr yield curve has un-inverted; yet in the media? Crickets Slowly I toined [cue Brooklyn accent], step by step… The 10yr-2yr yield curve un-inverted last week, turning from inversion to...