Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield continued to fall in August relative to the “fair value” estimate based on a model developed by CapitalSpectator.com. The market rate remains moderately...

2019 was the last year investors saw what could be called a “normal” easing cycle driven by macroeconomic growth concerns and falling S&P 500 EPS estimates. That was the third year of President...

One year ago, I wrote to you that it was time to buy bonds again. The “index huggers” who only know SPY thought we were nuts for talking fixed income. The popular narrative at the time (which aged...

The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and...

Fixed income as an asset class is looking bullish as Fed Chairman Powell prepares to give a widely anticipated speech this Friday (Aug. 23). The central banker is expected to drop clues about the...

Stock market predictions, of course, are just that—predictions. All of them (including mine!) should be taken with a grain of salt. I normally prefer to avoid making them. But every now and then I...

The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in July. The market rate is still well above the model’s estimate,...

I wrote about long bonds TLT starting in June and how they could be the next big trade. They were but for a week or so only at this point. The reasoning was that high yields would start to come down...

Eurozone data continues to challenge the European Central Bank, with German economic contraction and sticky CPI complicating matters. Meanwhile, the Germany 10-Year-United States 10-Year spread has...

In a blog post in February-2017, we discussed an age-old relationship between interest rates and prices. The following chart-based comparison of the T-Bond yield and the commodity/gold ratio is a...

Over the weekend we covered the weekly charts of the Economic Modern Family. All the original Modern Family (Russell 2000 (IWM), Retail XRT, Transportation IYT, Regional Banks KRE, Biotechnology...

The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield vs. a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com narrowed to a three-month low in June. The market-based yield is still well above this...

The last time the Fed cut the Fed funds rate, the Fed easing monetary policy started with Janet Yellen in Q4 ’16 and ended with Jay Powell in late 2018. The TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF...

A month ago it was reasonable to wonder if the worst was over for fixed-income securities writ large. Four weeks later, Treasury prices are slightly higher, but the debate continues as investors...