Bonds Analysis & Opinion

As I’ve mentioned in previous posts and webinars, the bond market is probably the least understood of the four capital markets. Most people’s eyes glaze over whenever it is mentioned....

By Padhraic GarveyThe US 10-year auction tailed, but the bond bulls don't seem to care. It looks like the market is playing with a change in the rate cycle discount. It's not illogical, but likely a...

By Padhraic GarveyAs we hold above 4.5% for the US 10-year, the immediate issue is 10-year and 30-year auctions. Beyond that into next week, prepare for a big drop in US headline inflation. Then...

Is the bond bear market finally over? That is the question everyone is asking now that bond prices rallied sharply following the November FOMC policy meeting. As noted earlier: “On Wednesday,...

Here’s the issue with all of the social media and the volumes of research on the bond markets: it’s not just whether interest rates (yields) are rising or falling, the shape of the...

By Padhraic Garvey and Benjamin SchroederThe Rally In Long-End Rates Extended With the Curve Flattening AcceleratingOverall, we have now seen a drop of close to 30bp in 10-Year and longer yields over...

The leaders of the European Union met last week to discuss how to rearrange the deck chairs on their political Titanic. While the decisions to continue to monetarily support Ukraine and now Israel...

The 10-year Treasury yield respected the 5% level – this is not a big surprise. However, to join the cheers that the only way for the yield is down, I need to see a confirmation below 4.35%...

Bonds have been selling off for quite a while now Once considered the safest investment, the sell-off has proven how risky long-duration bonds can be This is a great opportunity for investors to...

Treasury yield levels are overwhelmingly a function of inflation. However, in the short run, a plethora of influences can explain deviations between yields and inflation. These factors, which we call...

While the US 10-year yield is looking at the recent resistance before the 5% level, we cannot talk about a “flight to safe” Treasuries.Original Post

Two weeks ago I pointed out one of the effects of higher interest rates is that leveraged return strategies get swiftly worse as rates rise. Today, I want to talk about another result of higher...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, pushing ever higher above CapitalSpectator.com’s “fair-value” estimate, which is based on averaging three models. The trend...

Chris Kimble of Kimble Charting Solutions is a favorite technician, and his work is read regularly for good reason. The above chart from Kimble Charting Solutions highlights what could be a potential...