Bonds Analysis & Opinion

After a gentle disinflationary easing, the bond market could be hinting at an inflationary steepening of the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread.A yield curve can steepen under inflationary or...

By Benjamin Schroeder10Y Bunds got pushed back to 2.2% but still struggled to move past that hurdle despite a heavy supply slate. The same goes for the 10Y UST at 4% ahead of tomorrow’s...

Macro investing without deeply understanding bond markets is like eating soup with a fork.You can still somehow make it, but it’s cumbersome and unproductive. We are at a crucial juncture for...

Just as interest rates are pulling back, one particular government rate appears to be nearing an important moment.The 10-Year Germany Bond yield. Above is a long-term “monthly” chart of...

Several risk-on indicators surged higher into year-end, such as small-cap stocks and junk bonds.And as we typically see, this coincided with a big year-end stock market rally. Today, we take a look at...

The US bond market has had a rough ride for much of the past two years, but the powerful rally over the last two months suggests the worst is over.Cherry-picking analytics from the recent crop of 2024...

By Benjamin SchroederWhat a week it's been. Central bank anticipation first. Then, evidence of a holiday party at the Fed. Followed by failed attempts from Frankfurt and London to poop that party. But...

By Benjamin SchroederThe surprise from the FOMC was partly the extra 25bp implied cut added to 2024, but it was more the lack of pushback from Chair Powell on the 2024 rate cut narrative. He almost...

The average 2024 Wall Street S&P 500 forecast is for a gain of 6.50% next year. In the past, a 6.50% expectation, while slightly lower than historical averages, was a no-brainer when choosing...

By Benjamin SchroederMarket expectations of policy easing for the next year are about to get tested tonight with the Federal Reserve likely to signal that there is still a job to get done. Yesterday's...

By Benjamin SchroederPayrolls day is usually pivotal. This one more than most, as the US 10-year has fallen sharply from 5% down towards 4% without material evidence of any labor market recession. We...

By Benjamin SchroederThe 10-Year UST yield is closing in on the 4% mark as if a weak jobs report tomorrow was a given. But underlying is also a further slide of inflation expectations. The front end...

By Benjamin SchroederThe fair value number for the US 10-year yield is 4%, but we really need to see Friday's payrolls number first. The bond market is screaming at us that it'll be weak. But unless...

By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic GarveyFinancial conditions eased markedly through November, as market rates fell and credit spreads tightened (record month for bond returns). The recessionary...