ING Economic and Financial Analysis

February trade data did not bring any relief to the German economy. But wait, it can only get betterStill struggling. German exports (seasonally and calendar adjusted) dropped by 1.3% month-on-month...

After disappointment in February, job creation bounced back nicely in March. With pay set to continue grinding higher consumer fundamentals are in decent shape. Payrolls back on track After a poor...

Things are moving very quickly in the Brexit arena, and at the time of writing, U.K. prime minister Theresa May has written to the EU requesting a Brexit extension until 30 June 2019. Hopefully,...

A positive headline number, further weakening manufacturing data. What to make of this morning's German industrial data?German industrial production increased by 0.7% MoM in February, from an upwardly...

The highlight of today in FX could be the release of the ECB's March minutes. Here's our major currency pair roundupUSD: S&P 500 just 2% away from the September highsPresident Trump must be very...

Awful new-order data suggests that German industry is still suffering from Brexit woes and global uncertaintiesDevastating new orders data just undermined any hopes for an industrial rebound. Instead,...

February’s very soft jobs report contributed to markets pricing in Fed rate cuts later this year, but we expect a much better set of figures for March which should help ease market fears about a...

Our currency outlook on the first day of the month and it looks as though the US dollar could be supported this weekUSD: Domestic demand to keep USD supported this weekThe new quarter starts with some...

US retail sales missed expectations in February. Weather may have played a part, but with household incomes continuing to rise thanks to employment and wage growth gains, we remain upbeat on the...

After a torrid run, the US has produced some positive news on growth with the ISM manufacturing bouncing back up from two-year lows and construction spending surging higher at the beginning of 2019By...

After the downward revision in fourth quarter GDP, survey indicators show a robust economy in the beginning of 2019By Steven Trypsteen, ING EconomistA Robust EconomyThe PMI for the manufacturing...

China's official manufacturing PMI beat consensus in March. We believe this was mostly the result of fiscal stimulus on new infrastructure production, not a recovery from external demand. Since...

China's ongoing trade war with the US will hurt the jobs market and spending power. While this is being countered by stimulus measures, debt levels will increase. China's tourists have helped lower...

The labour market remains the best possible insurance against recession fears, even though very tentative signs of cooling have emerged.German unemployment dropped by 71,600 in March (not seasonally...

Key US data next week could confirm whether expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts are justified while business surveys and inflation data from Europe may offer clues about the ECB's next...

US 4Q GDP was revised down to 2.2% and 1Q19 growth is likely to be even lower. This will fuel talk of Fed rate cuts, but we still think there are reasons for optimism.4Q GDP revised down4Q US GDP has...