ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The chances of UK PM Johnson resigning are rising, but the pound appears immune to political noise and might not suffer from a change of leadership in the country. If anything, new Brexit negotiations...

The oil market continued to edge higher yesterday. ICE) Brent briefly broke above US$85/bbl at one stage with market sentiment remaining positive. The EIA’s weekly inventory report showed that...

FX markets have started the New Year backing those currencies with front-loaded tightening cycles. Here Sterling and some of the CE4 currencies have been the strongest performers and been joined by...

Focus turns to syndicated bond deals, with borrowers hoping for no new volatility from this week’s key economic releases. By and large, rates markets seem to have acquired a good deal of Covid...

While the Omicron wave is likely to temporarily weaken US growth, the first data releases of 2022 suggest the economy is fundamentally very strong with robust growth and inflation keeping the Federal...

Both the manufacturing and construction sectors of the United States are ending 2021 in a good position with strong output and healthy-looking order books. This should provide a decent platform for...

The European Central Bank seems to be having trouble deciding whether it's hawkish or dovish as it announces a cautious taper; it's bringing down net asset purchases to €20bn a month by October...

It's unlikely that the Bank of England will pull the trigger on a rate hike this week given the substantial uncertainty surrounding Omicron. But barring a severe hit to activity in January, we think...

A Fed announcement to speed up asset purchases should continue to support the dollar while the potential introduction of a third asset purchase program by the ECB may weigh on the euro. A Bank of...

The Fed’s hawkish shift looms large over rates markets, and overshadows more dovish decisions by the BoE and ECB. We view long-end rates as capped, but short yields could make more headway, for...

The Central Bank of Turkey continues to intervene in FX markets and sell USD/TRY, citing 'unhealthy price formations in exchange rates.' In Brazil, the local central bank is also selling dollars, but...

The oil market continued to strengthen yesterday as concern over the demand impact from the Omicron variant starts to fade. Brent managed to rally more than 3.4%, taking it back above the U.S.$75/bbl...

The unfavorable widening of short-term rate differentials has been a major driver of EUR/USD weakness, with the euro also suffering from investors re-entering carry trades amid a recovery in risk...

Friday saw the US Treasury release its delayed report on currency manipulation. We'll have a more detailed look later, but headlines suggested the US Treasury continues to work with Switzerland,...

Central banks bringing forward the date of the first hike also sees markets contemplating the prospect of subsequent cuts, something also visible on the US curve. The tone on European rates markets...

Headline US jobs numbers were weak, but the details paint a more positive picture.Nonetheless, labor supply simply isn't returning quickly enough and for companies desperate to hire this is a huge...