ING Economic and Financial Analysis

High US real rates paint an upbeat story. With a hawkish Fed setting the global tone even ECB doves concede that a first rate hike will happen rather sooner than later.But as focus shifts on the...

ICE Brent traded firm yesterday and settled with gains of around 2.2% to US$107.6/bbl on lower supplies from the North Sea and continued strength in the refined products market, especially for...

Eurozone growth has been a mixed bag over the first quarter, with solid growth in Austria, modest growth in Germany and Spain, stagnation in France, and a contraction in...

We expect another 25 basis-point rate hike, but the increasingly cautious language from Bank of England officials and a likely growth downgrade next Thursday suggests that markets are overestimating...

The times of solid risk sentiment in the face of tightening central banks are over. The end of the goldilocks market makes sense and asset classes have to chose between the inflationary or...

Higher (forward-looking) implied volatility suggests rates have moved to a durably higher regime. This means investors’ risk appetite will remain soft for the time being, and central banks...

FX markets are a little calmer after Chinese authorities promised to offer more support to the economy. But a more freely floating renminbi plus the steady withdrawal of central bank liquidity over...

EnergyCOVID worries in China weighed heavily on oil prices yesterday. ICE Brent briefly traded below US$100/bbl at one stage, although the market still managed to settle above US$102/bbl, down about...

All eyes today are on the US March CPI reading, expected to hit a new cycle high at 8.4% year-on-year. A number in that vicinity should maintain aggressive Fed tightening expectations and keep the...

We wouldn’t write off the curve flattening trend. Yes, hawkish market expectations are already high, but we fear medium-term growth expectations could deteriorate further. Risk premia could...

EnergyOil markets came under pressure yesterday. Brent settled more than 5% lower on the day, taking the market to its lowest levels since mid-March and leaving it not too far off from the US$100/bbl...

The Fed is showing the way with aggressive quantitative tightening ambitions. With some US$2.5tr coming off the balance sheet in the next two years, expect significant and lasting effects. Markets...

Minutes of the March Fed meeting show that were it not for the war in Ukraine, the Fed would have kicked off its tightening cycle with a 50bp hike. The fact that the Fed wants to move to a neutral...

The eurozone recovery is likely to come to a standstill on the back of the fall-out from the war in Ukraine. A multitude of adverse shocks is set to push inflation to 6% in 2022. For the time being...

Our new base case has oil prices staying above $100/barrel throughout 2022, while gas prices stay elevated as the EU competes for LNG supply. That's likely to see the European economies flirt with...

A packed schedule across the region that should reflect the uncertain business environment.PMI releases across the regionThis coming week, Indonesia and the Philippines will report their PMI...