ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The steep fall in mobility and consumer spending in December and January reflects COVID caution and threatens economic contraction in the first quarter. But as the Omicron wave passes, strong...

Anything the Fed can do, the Bank of England can do better.That’s the central takeaway from the BoE’s February meeting. Not only did policymakers hike rates to 0.5%, kick-starting the...

Rates markets are inclined to see the economic glass as half full. Wednesday's Eurozone core CPI could add to the bond market’s torments. Whether or not Lagarde leans against 2022 hike...

German inflation has given financial markets another headache on top of Fed and Bank of England tightening this year. Core bonds are at the epicenter of the market reaction but stress could quickly...

The quarterly growth rate of 0.3% proved the resilience of the eurozone economy. While Omicron, inflation, and supply chain disruptions continue to weigh on expansion in the current quarter, we...

For all the recent talk of the Fed and ‘quantitative tightening’, it’s the Bank of England that’s poised to lead the charge on reducing the size of its balance sheet. Starting...

Softer US data this week will be a key test for whether dollar bulls are comfortable with their positioning. We think they probably are. Elsewhere, some temporary calm in Eastern Europe and the...

Demand for consumer goods rose strongly last year despite the profound disruption to supply chains due to the pandemic. We expect global trade not only to normalize in 2022, but to grow further...

The exceptional strength in energy markets over 2021 has continued into 2022. Growing geopolitical risks and supply disruptions have proven constructive for prices. Oil should correct lower as supply...

We look for the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates 25bp on 26 Jan. Activity is strong, the economy is seeing record employment and inflation is at 30-year highs.COVID containment measures are also...

Central banks in Asia are not hiking interest rates aggressively, whereas their Central and Eastern European peers are. So why aren't we seeing crazy Asian rates? 0.065% Average change in policy rates...

A week dominated by Wednesday's FOMC announcement—an event that bears downside risk for the dollar in our view—starts with a very mixed picture in global equities as Russia-Ukraine...

Don’t look just at how many hikes are priced by yield curves to assess whether investors have come to terms with central bank tightening. We think second round effects on broader markets are...

At face value, the UK jobs market looks much like it did pre-pandemic. Taken with rising headline inflation, that makes a February rate hike look more likely. But a severe wage-price spiral looks...

Energy The oil market settled higher yet again yesterday. ICE Brent closed comfortably above US$86/bbl. Growing geopolitical risks have helped to support the market. This comes after a deadly drone...

We expect to see a continuation of Friday's dollar recovery this week, thanks to the still supportive Fed tightening and US growth narrative. The US data calendar is quiet and there are no Fed...