ING Economic and Financial Analysis

US consumer price inflation came in a fair bit stronger than expected in January, rising 0.6% month-on-month/7.5% year-on-year with core (ex food and energy) at 0.6%/6.0%. The consensus was for...

USD: Some Short-Lived SofteningEquity markets are enjoying a short period of calm as 4Q earnings reports continue to come in. Despite the US 'tech-wreck', other sectors of the equity markets are doing...

USD: Post-NFP Market Environment Should Favor US Dollar Recovery The week in foreign exchange has started with some unconventional moves, as some lingering fragility in US tech stocks (following a...

Inflation rates are diverging more than ever, but mostly due to energy pricesAfter last Thursday, the European Central Bank looks a lot closer to normalizing or tightening policy. What you hear a lot...

Energy The oil market finished off last week strongly. ICE (NYSE:ICE) Brent managed to settle above US$93/bbl, up around 3.6% over the week. The prompt ICE Brent spread has also continued to see...

No Recovery In USD Positioning CFTC FX positioning shows that the net aggregate USD positioning versus reported G10 currencies (i.e. G9 excluding NOK and SEK) continued to decline in the week ending...

Several central banks have taken a decidedly more hawkish stance over the past couple of months. Our economists look at what's likely to come next.US Federal ReserveHawkish commentary from Fed Chair...

The eurozone recovery is hitting a soft patch on the back of Omicron and high energy prices, but it should gain speed again from the second quarter onwards. The more lasting inflation story is pushing...

The steep fall in mobility and consumer spending in December and January reflects COVID caution and threatens economic contraction in the first quarter. But as the Omicron wave passes, strong...

Anything the Fed can do, the Bank of England can do better.That’s the central takeaway from the BoE’s February meeting. Not only did policymakers hike rates to 0.5%, kick-starting the...

Rates markets are inclined to see the economic glass as half full. Wednesday's Eurozone core CPI could add to the bond market’s torments. Whether or not Lagarde leans against 2022 hike...

German inflation has given financial markets another headache on top of Fed and Bank of England tightening this year. Core bonds are at the epicenter of the market reaction but stress could quickly...

The quarterly growth rate of 0.3% proved the resilience of the eurozone economy. While Omicron, inflation, and supply chain disruptions continue to weigh on expansion in the current quarter, we...

For all the recent talk of the Fed and ‘quantitative tightening’, it’s the Bank of England that’s poised to lead the charge on reducing the size of its balance sheet. Starting...

Softer US data this week will be a key test for whether dollar bulls are comfortable with their positioning. We think they probably are. Elsewhere, some temporary calm in Eastern Europe and the...

Demand for consumer goods rose strongly last year despite the profound disruption to supply chains due to the pandemic. We expect global trade not only to normalize in 2022, but to grow further...