ING Economic and Financial Analysis

EnergyIt was a fairly choppy day in the oil market yesterday. Brent traded as high as US$103.70/bbl and as low as US$96.93/bbl—the lowest levels we have seen Brent trade since 25 February. The...

Far from choking off growth, the start of the Fed tightening cycle seems to have been greeted warmly by equity markets. Clearly, there are many factors at work here, but it is noteworthy that equity...

The war in Ukraine means that UK inflation is going to stay higher for longer. It’s likely to peak at 8% in April but could peak even higher later in year should energy prices surge higher once...

Europe’s dependency on Russian energy has been a longstanding concern within the region, particularly for natural gas. These worries have only grown. Given the current Russia-Ukraine war and the...

The improvement in global supply chains has ended before it ever really began. The war in Ukraine will bring longer-lasting disruption and the trade outlook will bear the consequences of sanctions....

The US consumer price index rose 0.8%MoM in February, which leaves the annual rate of inflation at 7.9%, a new 40 year high. Food rose 1% MoM and energy was up 3.5% MoM—so stripping this out...

Swiss GDP continued to recover in the fourth quarter of 2021, concluding a very strong year. The fundamentals for growth were strong in early 2022, but the war in Ukraine is clouding the outlook. The...

The importance of Russia to oil markets Russia is a key player in global oil markets. Oil output in 2021 averaged 10.52MMbbls/d, making it the third-largest producer, behind only the US and Saudi...

March hike on its way, but no preset pathThe Federal Reserve has released Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, and in it, he confirms the...

US consumer price inflation came in a fair bit stronger than expected in January, rising 0.6% month-on-month/7.5% year-on-year with core (ex food and energy) at 0.6%/6.0%. The consensus was for...

USD: Some Short-Lived SofteningEquity markets are enjoying a short period of calm as 4Q earnings reports continue to come in. Despite the US 'tech-wreck', other sectors of the equity markets are doing...

USD: Post-NFP Market Environment Should Favor US Dollar Recovery The week in foreign exchange has started with some unconventional moves, as some lingering fragility in US tech stocks (following a...

Inflation rates are diverging more than ever, but mostly due to energy pricesAfter last Thursday, the European Central Bank looks a lot closer to normalizing or tightening policy. What you hear a lot...

Energy The oil market finished off last week strongly. ICE (NYSE:ICE) Brent managed to settle above US$93/bbl, up around 3.6% over the week. The prompt ICE Brent spread has also continued to see...

No Recovery In USD Positioning CFTC FX positioning shows that the net aggregate USD positioning versus reported G10 currencies (i.e. G9 excluding NOK and SEK) continued to decline in the week ending...

Several central banks have taken a decidedly more hawkish stance over the past couple of months. Our economists look at what's likely to come next.US Federal ReserveHawkish commentary from Fed Chair...