ING Economic and Financial Analysis

We hoped falling gasoline prices would lift retail spending in July, but this wasn't the case. Nevertheless, the data still points to a healthy start to the quarter. The cash flow boost from lower...

The minutes to the Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting point to ongoing rate hikes to ensure that inflation and inflation expectations don't become embedded. However, "many" participants fear they...

The UK CPI print was the not so gentle reminder that central banks' mission is far from accomplished. Near-term direction for rates should still be up. Illiquid markets may have amplified the reaction...

The US saw large oil inventory declines over the last week. However, commodities are still struggling to find direction. A number of markets are trying to balance weaker demand with growing supply...

Last night's release of the July 27 FOMC minutes was perhaps not the financial market bombshell that some were thinking. Yet we read three important takeaways for the FX market. These should...

A rebound in manufacturing and industrial output, coupled with a decent performance from the consumer sector and net trade and inventories being less of a drag support our view of 3%+ GDP growth in...

Eyewatering increases in household energy bills between now and next April mean inflation is likely to head above 12% from October. But core inflation might have peaked - or is close to peaking - now...

European natural gas prices continue to strengthen, which is having an impact on industrial output in the region. Yesterday, yet another metal smelter in Europe announced that it would halt production...

FOMC minutes as a communication tool against easing expectations should keep the US dollar supported. German recession is becoming inevitable. Sterling strikes back at the euro, backed by a hawkish...

University of Michigan consumer sentiment bounced more than expected in August with falling gasoline prices, rising equity markets and a robust labour market relieving some of the pressure on...

The market has moved on from last week’s lower-than-expected CPI print. Instead a stronger USD has weighed on much of the commodities complex, whilst Chinese data released this morning has not...

The week starts with focus on China's 10bp cut in its one-year Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF). Rather than rallying on the prospect of stimulus, commodity currencies have softened on the view that...

Quite a bit which has changed in the oil market over the past two weeks. Two weeks ago sentiment was fairly negative, given the continued demand concerns. This negative sentiment appears to have only...

U.S. markets are in the driving seat as CPI looms. With the labour market providing the room and inflation data stressing the necessity of further Fed tightening, the US curve inversion can extend...

Markets are enjoying some temporary calm and cross-market measures of volatility are sinking back to levels seen in early June. Barring an explosive US July CPI release or some major escalation in the...

U.S. markets are in the driving seat as CPI looms. With the labour market providing the room and inflation data stressing the necessity of further Fed tightening, the U.S. curve inversion can extend...