ING Economic and Financial Analysis Analysis

Rate Hike From The U.S. Fed, But A Pivot Is Coming By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jul 28, 2022

The Federal Reserve has raised the Fed funds target range by 75bp, making it a cumulative 225bp of rate hikes this year so far. The Fed's work is not yet done and we look for a further 125bp of hikes...

U.S. Dollar Pivot Hasn’t Arrived Yet By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jul 28, 2022

Yesterday's long-squeeze is not a sign of a longer-lasting soft period for the dollar, in our view. Upside risks for the greenback remain material due to an unstable global risk environment and still...

Rates Spark: Rock-Solid German Bund By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jul 26, 2022

German Bund yields holding on to last week’s gains confirm the market’s recessionary mood. We identify potential drivers for 10-year yields crossing below 1%. US data should add to the...

Foreign Exchange Daily: Trading The Pipeline By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jul 26, 2022

The EU held an emergency meeting to deliberate on plans to cut gas consumption by 15%, as Russia reduced Nord Stream flows further citing technical issues. With the US market more likely to stay in a...

EUR/USD: Expect Fewer Fireworks This Week By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jul 25, 2022

Following a rather tumultuous ECB week, we’ve entered Fed week with markets likely having a more solid conviction call on the magnitude of the rate increase. After having quite briefly flirted...

The Commodities Feed: Weaker U.S. Dollar Pushes Complex Higher By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jul 19, 2022

Energy The oil market surged higher yesterday with ICE (NYSE:ICE) Brent settling more than 5% up on the day and above US$106/bbl. A weaker USD provided support to the market, along with the broader...

U.S. Data Backs Case For 75bp Rate Hike By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jul 18, 2022

Inflation Fears Show Signs Of EasingThere has been growing speculation over a possible 100bp hike from the Fed later this month following the 9.1% inflation print and the Bank of Canada opting for a...

The Commodities Feed: Saudi Arabia Unwilling To Deviate From OPEC+ Policy By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jul 18, 2022

Energy The oil market traded lower for yet another week, down almost 5.5% over the course of last week, although ICE Brent still managed to settle above the US$100/bbl level. Towards the end of the...

Rates Spark: EUR Rates In Transition Mode By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jul 13, 2022

Recession red lights flashing for the eurozoneBonds are regaining their reputation as recession hedges. The US Treasury curve temporarily dipped below 3% during yesterday's session, except for the...

The Commodities Feed: Brent Settles Below $100/bbl By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jul 13, 2022

Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING viewsEnergyThe oil market came under further pressure yesterday. ICE) Brent settled more than 7% lower on the day, which left it to close below...

FX Daily: 75bp Is The New Normal By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jul 13, 2022

A 75bp hike by the Fed in July is almost certain. This is also the case in Canada today after New Zealand delivered 50bp this morning. Elsewhere, EUR/USD remains at risk of a break below parityUSD:...

Rates Spark: More US-Europe Divergence By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jul 12, 2022

The looming energy crisis in Europe is grabbing investors’ attention but markets cannot dismiss a hawkish Fed. For now, the ingredients are in place for further widening of USD-EUR rates...

The Commodities Feed: U.S. Dollar Weighs On The Complex By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jul 12, 2022

Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING viewsEnergy Oil prices have come under a bit of pressure in early morning trading in Asia today. NYMEX WTI is trading down around 1% at the time of...

FX Daily: EUR/USD Can Drop To 0.98 By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jul 12, 2022

EUR/USD is trading a touch above parity, having reached a 1.0006 low yesterday. A break below parity looks more likely than a rebound, in our view, and if we do see such a technical break, an...

Rates Spark: Some Two-Way Risk In Rates By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jun 28, 2022

Recession fears have injected much needed two-way risks in rates markets. Inflation swaps suggest expectations are anchored, but swaptions betray a record low degree of conviction. Together, they...

Rates Spark: How To Price A Recession By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jun 23, 2022 1

Have market rates peaked? We are getting close, but are not seeing a conclusive message that the top is in just yet. Inconsistent curve dynamics and the sharpest sell-off in two decades mean the bond...

The Commodities Feed: Recession Fear Weighs On The Complex By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Jun 23, 2022

EnergyThe oil market came under pressure with the rest of the commodities complex yesterday. ICE Brent traded as low as US$107.03/bbl at one stage. Growing fears over a recession have weighed on risk...