ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The UK jobs market is undeniably hot right now, but that could change. The Bank of England has forecast higher unemployment, although much obviously depends on whether we see a more severe economic...

Forex markets are calming a little after a riotous month. When the dust settles, however, we are still left with a Fed on course to tighten rates above 3% into next year and the commodity shock from...

Each activity data point for April released today was worse than expected, and only fixed asset investments were still in positive growth. This confirms our GDP forecast of a contraction in the second...

EnergyICE Brent started the week on a soft note as weaker economic data from China weighed on sentiment, with COVID-related lockdowns slowing economic activity and crude oil demand. Meanwhile, the...

FX dynamics are set to remain strictly tied to developments in global equity markets, which are desperately seeking some stabilization after a rough period.Domestic stories should play a secondary...

EUR/USD broke the key 1.0500 support yesterday as a rocky risk environment continued to favor a stronger dollar. At the same time, uncertainty around the implications of the Ukraine war in Europe...

The surge higher in rates after the US CPI was brief only, but clearly central banks still need to deliver on promises as inflation is set to grind lower, only slowly.The European Central Bank is...

The trade-weighted renminbi has now fallen 6% from its highs seen in March. One cannot but think that this is a policy adjustment by Chinese authorities as they search to stimulate their economy.With...

The oil market continues to trade in a large intra-day range and is struggling to find direction during this period of uncertainty for both supply and demand. Yesterday, the market took comfort in an...

US small business optimism held steady in April after three consecutive falls. Nonetheless, businesses retain the ability to pass higher costs onto their customers and this will keep inflation...

The inflation concerns are easing ahead of today’s US CPI reading. We doubt central bankers will back down so soon, however. Markets are coming around to our view that a peak is near in yields,...

EnergyOil sold off with risk assets on Monday, but it failed to follow equities higher yesterday. Instead, downward pressure on the market continued, which saw NYMEX WTI settle below...

Tightening financial conditions could mean markets see less of a need to hike rates. It is still early days and previous signs of worsening economic outlooks were met with a shrug by rates markets....

EnergyCommodity markets couldn’t escape the broader risk-off move yesterday. Markets are concerned over the impact of COVID lockdowns in China, recession risk, and rising rates. ICE Brent fell...

Some stabilization in risk sentiment after yesterday's equity sell-off could help high-beta currencies recover some ground today. The dollar might feel some pressure, although buy-the-dip interest may...

April experienced another solid increase in jobs despite businesses struggling to find suitable staff. Wage pressures were not as intense as expected, but this is likely to be only a temporary lull....