ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The Fed’s hawkish shift looms large over rates markets, and overshadows more dovish decisions by the BoE and ECB. We view long-end rates as capped, but short yields could make more headway, for...

The Central Bank of Turkey continues to intervene in FX markets and sell USD/TRY, citing 'unhealthy price formations in exchange rates.' In Brazil, the local central bank is also selling dollars, but...

The oil market continued to strengthen yesterday as concern over the demand impact from the Omicron variant starts to fade. Brent managed to rally more than 3.4%, taking it back above the U.S.$75/bbl...

The unfavorable widening of short-term rate differentials has been a major driver of EUR/USD weakness, with the euro also suffering from investors re-entering carry trades amid a recovery in risk...

Friday saw the US Treasury release its delayed report on currency manipulation. We'll have a more detailed look later, but headlines suggested the US Treasury continues to work with Switzerland,...

Central banks bringing forward the date of the first hike also sees markets contemplating the prospect of subsequent cuts, something also visible on the US curve. The tone on European rates markets...

Headline US jobs numbers were weak, but the details paint a more positive picture.Nonetheless, labor supply simply isn't returning quickly enough and for companies desperate to hire this is a huge...

Nobody knows if the new variant will be more transmissible or deal a significant blow to the current vaccines. These are the best and worst outcomes for the global economyVery little is known about...

Inflation, the Fed and political pressures will dominate the United States' economic trajectory next year1. Inflation to stay above 3% throughout 2022Supply chain strains, labour market shortages and...

Commodity prices should moderate in 2022 after an extraordinary year for markets; the post-pandemic recovery and numerous supply issues boosted prices. We now think we'll see better supply and demand...

Risk assets were back under pressure Tuesday, with markets awaiting updated information on the vaccine coverage against Omicron. The discussion was shifting towards monetary policy as markets priced...

Despite some stabilization, market sentiment is likely to remain shaky into the year-end. The Omicron variant adds to other factors capping bond yields over the coming weeks. The ECB seems relaxed...

EnergyFollowing the heavy sell-off on Friday, the oil market had a relief rally on Monday. At one stage, Brent crude managed to trade almost 6% higher. But in the end, it finished only about 1%...

Market sentiment has been hit by the news that a new COVID variant was spreading in Southern Africa. While we await more information on the new strain, the oversold JPY was getting a major lift and...

EnergyWhile the oil market now has some clarity around the coordinated SPR release, there is still plenty of uncertainty around how OPEC+ may react to a number of key consumers releasing stocks onto...

The minutes of the ECB's October meeting didn’t contain any big surprises, though it's worth mentioning that it now takes into account the possibility of higher medium-term inflation,...