ING Economic and Financial Analysis

EnergyIt was a sea of red across the commodities complex yesterday. The complex was swept up in the risk-off move seen across assets, driven by equities. While lockdowns in Shanghai are slowly...

Wednesday was another bad day for equities where the MSCI World Equity Index fell another 3%. The fact that expectations for Fed policy tightening remain intact is a sign that investors appreciate...

While there are plenty of upside risks to UK inflation, we suspect April's 9% figure will mark the peak. Certain goods categories will start to pull down the headline rate, even if further pressure in...

A hopeful read on Chinese headlines, strong data, and still hawkish central bankers are keeping rates markets on their toes. Injecting market volatility is not the end all and be all of a central...

The rebound in global equities is fuelling a widespread recovery in G10 pro-cyclical FX against the USD. Still, yesterday's remarks by Jay Powell were a reminder of the very hawkish Fed...

Central bank tightening may have dropped from the list of market worries but the effect of hawkish comments are increasingly being felt in riskier assets.Lagarde and Powell today could tip market...

The UK jobs market is undeniably hot right now, but that could change. The Bank of England has forecast higher unemployment, although much obviously depends on whether we see a more severe economic...

Forex markets are calming a little after a riotous month. When the dust settles, however, we are still left with a Fed on course to tighten rates above 3% into next year and the commodity shock from...

Each activity data point for April released today was worse than expected, and only fixed asset investments were still in positive growth. This confirms our GDP forecast of a contraction in the second...

EnergyICE Brent started the week on a soft note as weaker economic data from China weighed on sentiment, with COVID-related lockdowns slowing economic activity and crude oil demand. Meanwhile, the...

FX dynamics are set to remain strictly tied to developments in global equity markets, which are desperately seeking some stabilization after a rough period.Domestic stories should play a secondary...

EUR/USD broke the key 1.0500 support yesterday as a rocky risk environment continued to favor a stronger dollar. At the same time, uncertainty around the implications of the Ukraine war in Europe...

The surge higher in rates after the US CPI was brief only, but clearly central banks still need to deliver on promises as inflation is set to grind lower, only slowly.The European Central Bank is...

The trade-weighted renminbi has now fallen 6% from its highs seen in March. One cannot but think that this is a policy adjustment by Chinese authorities as they search to stimulate their economy.With...

The oil market continues to trade in a large intra-day range and is struggling to find direction during this period of uncertainty for both supply and demand. Yesterday, the market took comfort in an...

US small business optimism held steady in April after three consecutive falls. Nonetheless, businesses retain the ability to pass higher costs onto their customers and this will keep inflation...