ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The Ethereum blockchain is on the verge of a major and risky upgrade. This upgrade, if successful, would greatly reduce electricity use. This, in turn, would increase Ethereum’s acceptability to...

Oil prices came under further pressure yesterday, despite OPEC+ agreeing on a small supply cut for October. Meanwhile, supply disruption in the metals market continues to grow, with further aluminium...

OPEC+ members surprised the market yesterday by agreeing to cut their output target by 100Mbbls/d for October. However, given that OPEC+ has been producing well below production targets for some time...

Central bankers increasingly acknowledge that the battle to bring inflation back to target will cause a recession. Late stages in economic cycles have typically been good for the dollar and bad for...

Relative equity performance is becoming a bigger driver of foreign exchange moves, and the energy crisis in Europe does suggest euro assets will struggle to regain the market's confidence. Elsewhere,...

We will remember Jackson Hole not just for Powell's hawkish speech, but also for the ECB gearing up its own hawkishness – 75bp hikes are not just for the Fed. Even if just an attempt to invoke...

The Economic Sentiment Indicator fell modestly from 98.9 to 97.6 in August. Both industry and services indicate weakening economic activity. Meanwhile, recession prospects are causing more moderation...

It was a volatile start to the week for energy markets. European natural gas prices sunk, whilst oil moved higher. The next week will be key for markets. For natural gas, we will need to see whether...

It seems the Fed is not particularly displeased with the market reaction to Friday's hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair, Jay Powell. Here, real US yields have moved higher, equities have...

The Jackson Hole Symposium is mostly an academic endeavour with a heavy Federal Reserve flavour. The vast majority of what's discussed there will not be market moving; more market yawning. However,...

A large decline in US crude oil inventories has supported prices, while the market continues to wait for further detail on how Iranian nuclear talks are progressingEnergy: Hefty US Crude DrawEIA...

The dollar is slightly softer today as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) seemed to issue a protest against recent renminbi weakness with a stronger fixing. Additional stimulus measures from China are...

The hangover from this summer’s Goldilocks/soft landing party is a brutal one. Most asset classes are selling off but history suggests that this can only last so long. At some point, bonds...

Oil prices had a volatile day yesterday. Brent recouped almost all of its losses from earlier in the day after comments from the Saudi energy minister. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices continue...

The dollar is enjoying an ideal combination of conditions that support it staying below parity, while the euro will see another PMI drop today, supporting the divergence between the US and Europe. We...

We hoped falling gasoline prices would lift retail spending in July, but this wasn't the case. Nevertheless, the data still points to a healthy start to the quarter. The cash flow boost from lower...