ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The pound's elevated volatility looks set to stay as contradictory signals from BoE Governor Bailey and a media report about the extension of the emergency gilt-buying programme have left markets in...

The approaching end to the Bank of England’s purchases has sent gilts into a tailspin, a repo facility would help deal with margin financing but won’t solve the underlying problem. Joint...

Wheat prices rose yesterday as concern mounted for Ukrainian exports following Russia’s latest attack on a number of Ukrainian cities. The oil market appears to have shrugged off growing...

More turmoil in the UK bond market has seen the Bank of England step in with another emergency measure, this time to support battered inflation-linked bonds. Today's 30-year linker auction and speech...

Oil prices came under pressure in September, with Brent falling by almost 9% over the month and trading to the lowest levels since January. US dollar strength and central bank tightening have...

We continue to favor a stronger dollar this week, as CPI numbers should show another acceleration in core inflation, Fed communication should remain hawkish and risk sentiment unstable. The...

The dollar downtrend appears to be running out of steam. In our view, a further US dollar recovery is likely from current levels as markets show reluctance to fully jump in on bets of a Fed pivot. We...

There was no doubt that OPEC+ was going to cut oil supply when the group met in Vienna. However, the agreed 2MMbbls/d supply cut was at the top end of expectations. While the actual cut will be quite...

OPEC+ meet later today to discuss their output policy for November. It is pretty clear that the group will need to cut at their meeting and expectations about the scale of the supply reduction are...

U.S. Dollar: Position Adjustment Dominates Tuesday saw a tremendous rally in risk assets, where European equities led the pack by gaining over 4%, high yield credit spreads narrowed 30bp+ and...

Markets are smelling blood in the water, but do they have enough evidence to price a policy turnaround? Not yet in our view. The BoE’s reluctance to buy gilts is a sign that it hasn’t...

All attention remains focused on Wednesday’s OPEC+ meeting, where expectations are for the group to announce a large cut. Failure to deliver this could put some immediate downward pressure on...

The dollar has dropped nearly 3.0% since last week's highs, as global risk sentiment recovered and ISM manufacturing numbers disappointed. Still, the medium-term story remains US dollar-positive in...

When central banks implied that bringing inflation down required breaking things along the way, then what happened to the gilt market is likely not what they had in mind. Today's inflation data...

Events in the UK yesterday marked the first time this stagflationary macro environment risked evolving into a financial crisis. Fortunately, the Bank of England intervened aggressively in the Gilt...

The U.S. dollar continues to power ahead. Over the last 24 hours, the focus has switched from the pound to the Chinese renminbi. Here, there are signs that authorities are acquiescing to a weaker...