VIXCONTANGO.com Analysis

High Valuations Add To Election Worries By Stephen Aniston - Aug 04, 2020

Originally Published August 3, 2020It is very hard not to notice how high the October VIX Futures is. At more than 32, this is the highest recorded reading with 56 trading days to...

Secret Earning Power Of Big Banks: This Massive Hedge Against Recession By Stephen Aniston - Jul 21, 2020 1

In the middle of the largest economic decline in history in the 2nd quarter of 2020, the big banks reported their best revenues ever, defying all expectations. The top six big banks – JPMorgan...

VIX Alarm Bells Ringing As Investor Worries Mount Over COVID-19 By Stephen Aniston - Jul 15, 2020

An interesting divergence has developed over the past week. As the VIX raced higher, S&P 500 realized volatility has collapsed. Traditionally, the VIX is supposed to lead and predict levels...

Record VVIX Suggests Market Turbulence Will Remain By Stephen Aniston - Jul 02, 2020 3

VVIX has declined steadily over the past 2 weeks down to 120 prompting some to infer that this is a bullish development for the stock market. We obviously need a refresher on the VVIX here. VVIX is a...

TVIX, ZIV De-Listing Marks End Of An Era For Credit Suisse By Stephen Aniston - Jun 24, 2020 2

Following the XIV termination debacle in 2018, Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) is trying to reduce its legal exposure dramatically by delisting a number of its highly volatile VelocityShares ETNs.In a press...

Implied Volatility Was Seriously Underpriced By Stephen Aniston - Jun 15, 2020 1

The last 3 months were some of the most volatile ever observed in stock markets. As measured by “total travel” – the sum of absolute daily percentage changes from close to close...

Cyclical Rally Misleads Investors By Stephen Aniston - Jun 04, 2020 6

In the last 50 trading days, the SPX has recorded a nearly 38% return which is the fastest 50 trading day return in the history of the index. A big reason for that is a rally in “cyclical”...

Why This Is Still A Bear Market Rally By Stephen Aniston - May 26, 2020

The VIX futures curve remains in what I call a “Bear Market Rally” formation. The front month contango between the 1st and 2nd VIX future is positive while the “long” contango...

2021 Earnings Expectations Remain Unrealistic. Here's Why By Stephen Aniston - May 20, 2020

The COVID-19 virus has shown to be particularly deadly for people with pre-existing medical conditions and those of advanced age (65+). According to an 2019 study by the Center for American Progress,...

VIX Futures Curve Entering Contango May Be A Bull Trap By Stephen Aniston - May 11, 2020

The VIX Futures curve has been in Backwardation for 53 trading days since February 24th, which is the 3rd longest such streak since the VIX futures market was started in 2004. Only during the...

The Big 5 Makes Money But Not Enough to Bail Out The S&P 500 By Stephen Aniston - May 01, 2020

We continue to observe the usual dispersion of results in earnings because of the COVID recession. Analog business suffer, digital business prosper. Industrial name Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) had big...