ING Economic and Financial Analysis

EnergyOil finished last week off strongly. ICE Brent settled above US$119/bbl, which took its gains for the week to more than 6%. Tightness in the refined products market continues to prove supportive...

A holiday-shortened week starts with risk assets in demand as China marginally softens lockdown curbs and the pricing of a Fed pause allows interest to return to FX carry trades. That could see the...

The composite PMI fell from 55.8 to 54.9 in May, still signaling decent expansion. With inflation pressures remaining close to all-time highs, this keeps hawkish pressure on the ECB to act quickly...

Market pricing of the Fed tightening cycle has settled down now. And yields at the short-end of the US yield curve are now quite steady.The benign case for global asset markets is that the Fed pauses...

Several European Central Bank officials have become more vocal, showing their concern about the weakening euro. As much as we think that these concerns are overdone, a strengthening euro could be the...

EnergyTightness in the refined products market continues to support the oil market. ICE Brent managed to eke out a gain of a little under 1% last week, which saw it settle above US$112/bbl. But...

The dollar long-squeeze continues to support G10 FX, but a more balanced positioning picture may soon allow the supportive monetary and growth considerations for USD to re-emerge.This week, PMIs in...

Curves pivoting flatter fits a narrative further shifting towards growth concerns. As European Central Bank pricing gets more hawkish there is more than just the possibility of 50bp moves that could...

EnergyIt was a sea of red across the commodities complex yesterday. The complex was swept up in the risk-off move seen across assets, driven by equities. While lockdowns in Shanghai are slowly...

Wednesday was another bad day for equities where the MSCI World Equity Index fell another 3%. The fact that expectations for Fed policy tightening remain intact is a sign that investors appreciate...

While there are plenty of upside risks to UK inflation, we suspect April's 9% figure will mark the peak. Certain goods categories will start to pull down the headline rate, even if further pressure in...

A hopeful read on Chinese headlines, strong data, and still hawkish central bankers are keeping rates markets on their toes. Injecting market volatility is not the end all and be all of a central...

The rebound in global equities is fuelling a widespread recovery in G10 pro-cyclical FX against the USD. Still, yesterday's remarks by Jay Powell were a reminder of the very hawkish Fed...

Central bank tightening may have dropped from the list of market worries but the effect of hawkish comments are increasingly being felt in riskier assets.Lagarde and Powell today could tip market...

The UK jobs market is undeniably hot right now, but that could change. The Bank of England has forecast higher unemployment, although much obviously depends on whether we see a more severe economic...

Forex markets are calming a little after a riotous month. When the dust settles, however, we are still left with a Fed on course to tighten rates above 3% into next year and the commodity shock from...