ING Economic and Financial Analysis

We continue to favor a stronger dollar this week, as CPI numbers should show another acceleration in core inflation, Fed communication should remain hawkish and risk sentiment unstable. The...

The dollar downtrend appears to be running out of steam. In our view, a further US dollar recovery is likely from current levels as markets show reluctance to fully jump in on bets of a Fed pivot. We...

There was no doubt that OPEC+ was going to cut oil supply when the group met in Vienna. However, the agreed 2MMbbls/d supply cut was at the top end of expectations. While the actual cut will be quite...

OPEC+ meet later today to discuss their output policy for November. It is pretty clear that the group will need to cut at their meeting and expectations about the scale of the supply reduction are...

U.S. Dollar: Position Adjustment Dominates Tuesday saw a tremendous rally in risk assets, where European equities led the pack by gaining over 4%, high yield credit spreads narrowed 30bp+ and...

Markets are smelling blood in the water, but do they have enough evidence to price a policy turnaround? Not yet in our view. The BoE’s reluctance to buy gilts is a sign that it hasn’t...

All attention remains focused on Wednesday’s OPEC+ meeting, where expectations are for the group to announce a large cut. Failure to deliver this could put some immediate downward pressure on...

The dollar has dropped nearly 3.0% since last week's highs, as global risk sentiment recovered and ISM manufacturing numbers disappointed. Still, the medium-term story remains US dollar-positive in...

When central banks implied that bringing inflation down required breaking things along the way, then what happened to the gilt market is likely not what they had in mind. Today's inflation data...

Events in the UK yesterday marked the first time this stagflationary macro environment risked evolving into a financial crisis. Fortunately, the Bank of England intervened aggressively in the Gilt...

The U.S. dollar continues to power ahead. Over the last 24 hours, the focus has switched from the pound to the Chinese renminbi. Here, there are signs that authorities are acquiescing to a weaker...

US dollar strength and central bank tightening have weighed heavily on the gold market. And with further tightening expected there is room for more downside in the near term. However, the medium-term...

The move higher in the US Dollar has been unrelenting and this continues to weigh heavily on the commodities complex. Macro drivers remain firmly in the driving seat, while supply risks continue to be...

Unlike equity markets, where a fall of more than 20% from a peak is called a bear market, definitions in FX markets are somewhat looser. Suffice it to say that GBP/USD is the worst-performing G10...

The macro picture continues to weigh on the commodities complex and the hawkish FOMC meeting certainly hasn't helped. However, there are clear supply risks still facing the market following...

The Federal Reserve met expectations and hiked rates 75bp. With inflation proving to be far stickier than imagined, the Fed repeated that activity needs to slow much more with the door left wide open...