Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Japan's Ministry of Finance reports portfolio flows on a week weekly basis. It provide more timely, even if less detailed information than contained in the monthly balance of payments data.In the...

Bonds & Related Indicators (and more macro discussion)The target for TLT continues to be around 129. Treasury bonds are in bull trends (remember back a few months ago to all the bond hatred in the...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large speculators boosted their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week to the highest level in four weeks, according to...

Let's have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields as of Friday's close. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and...

Earlier this week the Fed raised short-term interest rates to a range of 1.00 to 1.25%. To many of us, that's still a very low level. In fact you have to go back to October 2008 to find a higher level...

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday hiked interest rates again, asserting that moderate economic growth will continue for the foreseeable future. But confidence appeared to be in short supply via the...

With the FOMC winding up their June meeting today, the financial news shows and press will be all about whether or not they will vote to increase short term rates, by how much and then immediately...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through yesterday's market close.Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.21% and...

Concerns regarding higher interest rates continue to run deep. But you wouldn’t know it from the recent action of the long-term treasury bond which rallied 8% in 3 months since bottoming in...

The bounce in Treasury yields witnessed after the election of Donald Trump is now decaying in the D.C. swamp. If the Fed continues to ignore this slow growth and deflationary signal from the bond...

As I observed over the last two weeks, most Fed presidents believe they have achieved their dual mandate – full employment and inflation near 2%. Today, I want to look at the counter-arguments...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators pulled back sharply from their highest bullish position since 2007 this week in the 10-year treasury note futures markets, according...

The economy continues to do well, along with the stock market, prompting many to worry about inflationary pressures picking up speed. Below looks at the TIP—TLT ratio and the message it is...

Last week, I discussed the views of 4 Federal Reserve presidents to discern their current interest rate policy. This week’s column finishes that analysis. I would like to offer a personal thanks...