Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Bund holding the below first resistance at 161.00/160.95 targets minor support at 160.80/76 (we closed just below here) then 160.60/55 (also yesterday's low). A break lower today targets 160.44/41...

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates again in June, a policy decision that looks set to further squeeze the Treasury yield curve. The spread between the 10-Year and 3-Month...

In this article on 2/27, I wrote about a potential bear put spread in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (NASDAQ:TLT) (Figure 1), betting on a decline in bonds prices. Then in this article on 3/9, I...

In the video below, we look at a series of charts on US bond yields from the Weekly Macro Themes report. The main chart of interest shows our composite sentiment indicator for the bond market, which...

Further to my post of April 11, 30-Year Bonds have gained a couple of points, as shown on the monthly chart below.Price now sits just above major resistance (50% Fibonacci retracement) and is poised...

Bonds have been hit hard since the highs around the 4th of July last year. Is this big decline be creating a bottoming pattern? Bottoms Up for bonds?Below looks at TLT's pattern over the past couple...

From Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.: When a sovereign nation can’t readily finance or pay its debts, it’s traumatic.Bond prices collapse. Interest rates surge to 10%, 20%, even 30%. Federal jobs...

There is no doubt that the Federal Reserve is in the process of raising rates. The only question now is “when” and “how much.” The most recent “dot plot” from the...

We’ve had seven client/consultant/prospect speeches and meetings in the last week. The hottest topic has been the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and what changes in it will mean for...

I read an article recently that noted the 65-75bp rise in Treasury yields over the last year or so, and sought to explain, through a labyrinthine line of reasoning/model, that most of the rise was due...

Sometimes things in the financial markets are pretty obvious if one is willing to see them. Despite all of the angst that has been exhausted since July of 2016 – when the S&P 500 Index broke...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through today's market close.Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.39% and the...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators and traders decreased their bullish net positions in the 10-year treasury note futures markets last week, according to the latest...

A majority of Federal Reserve officials expect that conditions will warrant two more hikes this year. That would put the Fed funds target range at 1.25%-1.50% at year-end. Yet the two-year note yields...