ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Iranian oil exports by destination (Mbbls/d)EnergyNo US waivers for Iranian oil: The US announced its intention yesterday not to extend waivers for buyers of Iranian crude oil, which are set to expire...

US retail sales bounced back strongly in March and jobless claims fell to new lows, boosting hopes for a 2.5% 1Q GDP reading next week.Upside risk for 1Q GDPUS retail sales surged 1.6% higher in March...

It's quite an interesting week ahead for developed markets: UK parliament returning from Easter recess could prompt May-Corbyn Brexit talks to get back up and running; an upbeat US 1Q GDP growth...

The US trade balance improved in February thanks to US companies cutting imports on assumption of a 1 January tariff hike that failed to materialise. This bodes well for 1Q GDP growthTrade boost for...

With a sizeable CNY 4 trillion fiscal stimulus and a monetary easing policy that has created 40% credit growth in 1Q19 alone, we expect the Chinese economy to grow above the 6% lower boundary target...

Exports jumped on seasonal factors while imports continued to shrink, with less demand for U.S. goods compared to a year ago. In coming months, we expect modest export growth as the base effect fades....

China's aggregate financing, which includes loans and other credit channels, amounted to CNY2.86 trillion in March alone. Loans comprised only a part of this, with the rest coming from the debt...

If you're going to take anything away from next week's data it's that - despite markets pricing in a Fed rate cut this year, economic fundamentals in the US are very much telling a different story. We...

With the headwinds facing the U.K. economy set to remain in place, the chances of a rate hike from the Bank of England this year have faded considerably. We expect sterling gains to stall, and the...

After the March action, the ECB took it a bit easier today. The ECB first wants to spend more time in the study room before announcing details of the new TLTROs or even presenting measures to bring...

We're not expecting any fireworks from today's ECB meetingUSD: Core CPI to remain modestly above the Fed’s targetThe focus today is on the US March CPI. Our economists expect energy prices to be...

President Trump's threat to impose tariffs on selected EU goods in response to the claimed EU subsidies for Airbus may keep a lid on European FX vs USD today. But the impact should be more limited and...

Your daily roundup of commodity news and ING viewsWTI/Brent spread vs. US crude oil exportsEnergyWTI/Brent discount narrows: The WTI/Brent spread continued to narrow yesterday, with the discount...

The focus this week turns to the European Council meeting on Wednesday where leaders meet to decide whether to allow a further extension to the Article 50 period.USD: Higher oil prices favouring LatAm...

Your daily roundup of commodity news and ING viewsChina gold reserves (mOz)EnergyLibyan tensions build: Conflict in Libya has escalated once again, with Khalifa Haftar in the east of the country...

February trade data did not bring any relief to the German economy. But wait, it can only get betterStill struggling. German exports (seasonally and calendar adjusted) dropped by 1.3% month-on-month...