ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The worst performance of the German economy since 1Q 2013 was just confirmed. The economy shrank by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter. On the year, the economy still grew by 1.1%. While the headline figure...

The People's Bank of China spent $91.58 billion on foreign-exchange purchases in October. We believe this means the central bank wants USD/CNY to cross the 7.0 mark, but without any market...

A big drop in oil, troubles in tech and a damning report on China mean the FX flight-to-safety will likely continue todayUSD: Pick A Theme, Any ThemeFX markets remain buffeted by a variety of...

In one of his rare public speeches, ECB president Mario Draghi just confirmed the bank's determination to end quantitative easing, but opened the door for a long period of low interest rates.When ECB...

The eurozone's weak performance will be seen through the lens of PMIs next week. We also have some US second-tier releases but nothing which will stop the Fed hiking in December.US: On course for a...

A slew of ministerial resignations and the probability that enough of her MPs will look to trigger a no-confidence vote leave PM Theresa May’s Brexit plan in tatters.The biggest loser is the UK...

GBP: Under pressureA UK leadership challenge (note that the needed 48 letters from Conservative MPs are reported still not to be in place) and potential further resignations from ministers (such as...

First it was politics, now it is the economy. The worst economic performance since 1Q 2013 is another wake-up call for the eurozone’s largest economy to take action. The swan songs and...

China's activity data show that infrastructure has finally come to the rescue of the economy. But is it too little, too late? Retail sales growth is slowing.Infrastructure eventually comes to rescueIt...

China's credit report shows that local government bond issuance has experienced an abrupt decline, implying the limit for this year's fiscal stimulus may have already been reached.Local government...

View our latest forecasts for growth, inflation, rates and currenciesExecutive summary GDP forecasts CPI and oil price forecasts Central bank policy rate forecasts 3-month interest rate...

Despite some notable exceptions, Asian currencies have been staging a resurgence of late. The hand-wringing in emerging markets seems to have vanished, and with it, the weakness that was plaguing most...

An exciting week ahead in developed markets. We hope to better understand the Eurozone's recent poor performance, and see a political stalemate in Sweden come to a showdown. And if your feeling...

Strong export data in October shows that Chinese exporters are worried that US tariffs will increase in January 2019. We expect this front-loading behaviour to continue for the rest of 2018, as we...

Strong export data in October showed that Chinese exporters are worried that US tariffs will increase in January 2019. We expect this front-loading behaviour to continue for the rest of 2018 as we...

Foreign exchange reserves dropped by $34 billion in October, the largest drop in 2018 so far, though still small compared to 2015. This means there was no capital outflow panic even as the yuan...