ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Short-term position adjustment could weigh on US assets this weekUSD: Washington could go all-in on protectionism this weekProspects of Washington extending tariffs to the entire range of Chinese...

The US increased tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% on Friday. We believe that China will retaliate in kind, with $30 billion worth of tariffs on US goods. This could happen either today...

Swing States win elections, and given the strong economic performance of the big 5, any challenger is immediately going to be on the defensiveThe economy, stupid?In our US Politics Watch: Presidential...

China's April credit data matched the smooth progress of trade talks last month. But as the trade tension increases, we expect faster loan growth to return.Loan growth dropped more than expected in...

Chinese foreign exchange reserves have fallen slightly, mainly as a result of the strong dollar. But this shouldn't mask the fact that there were some inflows into China's asset market too.The strong...

Your daily roundup of commodity news and ING viewsChinese oil imports growEnergyU.S. oil inventories: The API reported yesterday that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 2.81MMbbls over the last...

Exports contracted 2.7% year-on-year in April while imports enjoyed a rise of 4.0% YoY. These numbers reflect the negative outlook for smart devices and automobile sales globally, and at the same show...

Strong industrial production data confirms our view of a positive surprise in next week's GDP data.German industrial production increased by 0.5% month-on-month in March, sending more positive signals...

Renewed volatility in USD/CNY, plus USD/TRY crossing 6 along with Wednesday’s South African elections suggests it could be a difficult few days for risk assets.USD: Trump’s last minute...

The development of the trade negotiation process should be long as China learns about the U.S.' negotiation tactics, and has a back-up from a policy-stimulated economy. Technology should be the focus...

The US jobs market continues to surge with the unemployment rate at the lowest level since December 1969. The market is pricing Fed rate cuts, but we really don’t see the need.No signs of a...

A potential U.S.-China trade deal could well be within touching distance and U.S. data should remain decent, both of which don't point towards a Fed rate cut this year. The first-quarter GDP report is...

While financial markets continue to price in rate cuts, the Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautiously upbeat tone that to us signals stable monetary policy through 2019.There were no real surprises...

The ISM manufacturing index has fallen to its lowest level since October 2016, which will only help to fuel slowdown fears. But with consumer spending looking in good shape and inflation likely to...

Demand for workers remains strong given the economy’s robust performance, yet the shrinking pool of available labour means competition for staff is intense. This is constraining employment...

The lower than expected manufacturing PMIs show new orders continuing to increase. By contrast, new export orders continued to shrink although at a slower rate. The government will keep the existing...