Cumberland Advisors

Stocks have struggled during the first half of election years. The DJIA has bottomed in May of election years, on average, but the timing has become linked to when the winner has been clear. For...

The gold price has jumped over 17% from its December low of $1,050.80/oz to a near one-year peak of $1,239.10/oz. In the meantime, the S&P 500 has dropped more than 9%, reaching a new 52-week...

Though my recent interview with Rhonda Schaffler begins with a discussion of the case for natural gas, it closes with an easy summary of the basic argument for Japan, and it is the case for Japan that...

Japan’s initial move into negative interest rates is a baby step. However, it is the first step. And it triggered massive market responses for understandable reasons.Observations about the...

Americans traditionally look at interest rates as the guide for monetary policy and have done so for half a century. We debate over whether nominal interest rates or real (inflation-adjusted) interest...

Hartford Funds has published an analysis of “stock market returns after significant oil price declines.” They used the WTI crude oil price reference and examined a period of approximately...

We have been concerned about the situation of banks in Italy and the possibility of a broader banking crisis developing across the Eurozone. At his press conference on Thursday following a meeting of...

The issue is easily defined: Convergences reduce volatility. Divergences increase volatility. That defines the yin and yang of markets. Or others might call it the Sturm und Drang of markets. We call...

I. OilThe S&P 500 lost 8% in the first two weeks of 2016, experiencing a new 52-week low of 1,857 during intraday movement on Friday, Jan. 15th. At one point the Dow Jones 30 was down by 500...

In his recent dispatch on the daily market gyrations, Art Cashin relays to us the various rumors swirling around on the exchange floor. Art’s reasons for the red paint on the tape...

Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal highlighted a supposed divergence between the market’s projection of two FOMC rate hikes this year, based on federal funds futures prices, and the...

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) just announced they are suspending their new circuit-breaker system, which stopped trading today after the China markets were open only 29 minutes....

When the markets opened on the first market day of 2016, we were glad that we had not re-entered China's equity markets since we sold our China positions last August. We were also glad that we did not...

The Tactical Trend strategy seeks to identify favorable investment opportunities among six primary asset classes. Capital is rotated to the specific markets that the portfolio managers attempt to...

MLPs were mauled in 2015 in the last two months of the year. Mutual fund redemptions and tax-loss selling created a huge and unexpected downdraft. Here are some numbers.Performance (based on Alerian...

No sooner did the FOMC embark upon normalization of its monetary policy stance by initiating its first interest-rate hike in seven years than pundits and policy commentators began offering their...