Cumberland Advisors

“The typical Dow stock now trades for 15.5x this year’s earnings and 14.0x next year. Not cheap, but no longer the 18x earnings we had with the Dow at +18,000. Dividend yields – and...

Despite the huge surge in market volatility the past three days and the tumultuous drop in US equities, these moves tell us nothing about the state of the US real economy. China is having its...

Four states and many plane rides were interwoven with lots of phone calls, emails, market notices, and media alerts. This has been quite a week! If you were on Mars and missed the 1,000-point Dow...

Here we go again with the debate over whether or not the Federal Reserve (Fed) should, could, will, or won’t raise rates in September. This interminable drum roll of a debate must come to an...

Last week’s market moves triggered by angst over the decision by Chinese authorities to depreciate its currency have been painted by some as a disaster for the US. The focus is typically on...

August 10th’s announcement by China that it would “devalue” the yuan (also called the renminbi), caught markets and us by surprise as China had been keeping its currency within a...

“… a death cross has been a good indicator to tell us that investors should be out of the market,” says an August 12 Barron’s article by Michael Kahn.Then came the...

The Fed is looking at 19 ways to measure the recovery in the employment data. The Fed says it is “data driven.” And the Fed says that its key area of focus is unemployment. 19 ways or is...

New power plant regulations announced by President Obama require that carbon emissions be reduced by 32% by 2030. Capital Alpha Partners has released a report, available here, that offers good...

Last Monday, July 27, the Shanghai market suffered its greatest one-day decline in eight years, 8.5%. This followed a tumble that brought Shanghai shares down some 32% early in July from their peak in...

Some very astute readers raised interesting questions about the implied rundown rate in the Fed’s SOMA portfolio, as presented in our recent commentary “The Fed’s Dilemma.”...

Correspondence with a longtime Camp Kotok fishing partner concerning some interesting omissions from the Fed’s most recent semiannual report to Congress piqued my curiosity as to how feasible...

Consider first the macroeconomic story. The Japanese economic recovery continues. Growth in the first quarter at an annual rate of 2.4% was the fastest among the large developed economies, with...

With the necessary steps for the conclusion of the Greece bailout falling into place (kicking the can down the road for three years, it appears), attention turns to the prospects for other Eurozone...

"Athens’ biggest worry was the sheer recklessness of its own democratic government." – Thucydides, 5th century BC. History repeats. Greece rocks the news this morning with word that...

Faced with a hard deadline, a collapsing banking system and an economy that is seizing up, Greece blinked. It submitted to its creditors a request for a new three-year loan and offered a set of reform...