Cumberland Advisors

The global equity markets started the third quarter off with a strong rally that erased the Brexit weakness and lifted many indexes to 52-week highs by early September. The markets have spent the back...

Recognizing strength and weakness among primary asset classes is the core goal of our Tactical Trend strategy. For much of the year, domestic equity, fixed income, and cash have registered very close...

A Market in Transition?The municipal bond market finally slowed down during 3Q2016, as shown in Tables 1 and 2. The muni market cheapened on both a nominal and a relative basis. Why? Some of this...

As we expected here at Cumberland Advisors, the FOMC chose not to raise rates at its September meeting but strongly suggested, based upon both rhetoric and its dot forecast chart, that it was clearly...

The US stock market entered a complacent phase after our post-Brexit entry. Although we benefited significantly from being contrarians and buying the dip immediately after the UK referendum, we were...

The analog to markets is the struggle over the last three years between corporate earnings fundamentals and interest rates for control of stock prices. Earnings have been at or near a peak since 2013...

Liz McCormick (NYSE:MKC)'s reporting via Bloomberg gives readers an update on the coming rule changes for money markets. We recommend it to interested readers.Two additions may be helpful. First is...

The European Central Bank (ECB) met on September 8. The US Federal Reserve Bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on September 21, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) holds its next Monetary...

At last week’s gathering of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, attention was focused – for good reasons – on the comments of the Federal Reserve’s Chair, Janet Yellen, and...

Chair Yellen’s much-awaited Jackson Hole speech has been touted in the media as suggesting that there will soon be a second rate hike to follow the FOMC’s December 2015 move. However, many...

"Because US dollar (USD) LIBOR is used in such a large volume and broad range of financial products and contracts, the risks surrounding it pose a potential threat to the safety and soundness of...

Having talked about cash, let’s now add negative rates to the calculus an investor must perform.With a positive rate, we can compute the sensitivity of a bond’s price to a change in an...

The Bank of Japan decided at its July 28–29 meeting to boost its purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to an annual rate of 6 trillion yen, almost double the previous rate of 3.3 trillion...

The bottom line is that we think the financial/banking system is tightening and we are now defensive. We have raised cash in our US ETF accounts, and we have taken bond profits and shortened duration...

On July 29 we published a long piece entitled “Cash, NIRP & Bonds.”Now we see a German bank succumbing to pressure and starting to charge its customers a pass-through of the negative...

Last week the Bank of England (BoE) surprised markets by announcing a broader than expected monetary stimulus package. The BoE’s first rate cut in seven years, by 25 basis points to 0.25%, was...