Market Overview

Do you believe the economy is heading towards inflation? Well, the price will argue with that opinion.  Looking at my own trifecta of inflation barometers  The dollar would weaken  The silver...

This will be a hectic week. Earnings season is winding down, of course, but we have lots of economic data, starting on Wednesday with the core CPI, which is expected to rise by 0.3% m/m from 0.2%....

Our main macro thesis for the first half of 2025 is that another disinflationary wave will hit the US. We expect core PCE to annualize at or below 2% in H1 2025. Our Leading Inflation Indicator...

SUN: Chinese Inflation (Jan) MON: Norwegian CPI (Jan) and GDP (Q4/Oct), EZ Sentix Index (Feb), UK GDP (Q4) TUE: EIA STEO WED: OPEC MOMR, US CPI (Jan) THU: IEA OMR, NZ Inflation Forecasts (Q1),...

All money is lent into existence. The Federal Reserve or the government does not print money. Those two facts are vital to understanding our lead question: where does money come from? Furthermore,...

I want to expand a bit on market liquidity and why modeling it is so crucial to the economy, inflation, and money management. Liquidity is the progenitor of Pento Portfolio Strategies’ Inflation...

Investors have had to deal with the recent stock market volatility that has come along with President Trump's latest round of tariffs. While these are leaving a lot of uncertainty across the economy...

BigBearai Holdings Inc (NYSE:BBAI) provides artificial intelligence (AI)-powered decision-intelligence solutions. On February 5, 2025, its stock price climbed to a 52-week high. This coincides with a...

Dollar rebounds ahead of NFP data. BoE cuts rates by 25bps, ultra-hawk votes for double cut. Canada’s jobs data to shake BoC expectations. S&P 500 and Nasdaq gain, Dow Jones slides. US Jobs...

The Federal Reserve’s record of forecasting has frequently led it to respond too late to changes in economic and financial conditions. In the most recent FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve changed its...

Upcoming NFP Report Puts Bearish Pressure on Gold The gold (XAU/USD) price declined by 0.3% on Thursday as the US dollar (USD) strengthened ahead of the critical US jobs report. XAU/USD has been...

The NY Fed has recently published a study on bank failures in the U.S., examining the reasons why banks fail. For this study, the regulator constructed a large database with balance sheet information...

NFP report expectations: +169K jobs, +0.3% m/m earnings, unemployment at 4.1% Leading indicators point to a potentially above-expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth...

Yesterday’s market was a bit volatile, though not surprising. We mainly saw sideways trading for most of the day until about 2 PM, when we experienced a significant downdraft. However, that was...