Market Overview

Our main macro thesis for the first half of 2025 is that another disinflationary wave will hit the US. We expect core PCE to annualize at or below 2% in H1 2025. Our Leading Inflation Indicator...

SUN: Chinese Inflation (Jan) MON: Norwegian CPI (Jan) and GDP (Q4/Oct), EZ Sentix Index (Feb), UK GDP (Q4) TUE: EIA STEO WED: OPEC MOMR, US CPI (Jan) THU: IEA OMR, NZ Inflation Forecasts (Q1),...

All money is lent into existence. The Federal Reserve or the government does not print money. Those two facts are vital to understanding our lead question: where does money come from? Furthermore,...

I want to expand a bit on market liquidity and why modeling it is so crucial to the economy, inflation, and money management. Liquidity is the progenitor of Pento Portfolio Strategies’ Inflation...

Markets had an interesting end to the week with a mixed bag of jobs data leaving a lot to be desired. However, in 2025 Fridays have proven anything but disappointing thus far, and this week did not...

Investors have had to deal with the recent stock market volatility that has come along with President Trump's latest round of tariffs. While these are leaving a lot of uncertainty across the economy...

US consumer and producer prices are the main focal point. UK economic output data is to be watched too. But Trump and tariff headlines might be a bigger market driver. Trump rattles markets with...

Dollar rebounds ahead of NFP data. BoE cuts rates by 25bps, ultra-hawk votes for double cut. Canada’s jobs data to shake BoC expectations. S&P 500 and Nasdaq gain, Dow Jones slides. US Jobs...

Upcoming NFP Report Puts Bearish Pressure on Gold The gold (XAU/USD) price declined by 0.3% on Thursday as the US dollar (USD) strengthened ahead of the critical US jobs report. XAU/USD has been...

The NY Fed has recently published a study on bank failures in the U.S., examining the reasons why banks fail. For this study, the regulator constructed a large database with balance sheet information...

NFP report expectations: +169K jobs, +0.3% m/m earnings, unemployment at 4.1% Leading indicators point to a potentially above-expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth...

Yesterday’s market was a bit volatile, though not surprising. We mainly saw sideways trading for most of the day until about 2 PM, when we experienced a significant downdraft. However, that was...

Investors have had to deal with a lot of uncertainty lately in the stock market as President Trump has rolled out the latest rounds of tariffs, targeting goods traded with China, Mexico, and Canada...

Roblox Corp's (NYSE:RBLX)price plunge is an opportunity for robust gains because there is no good reason for the 20% decline, and the fundamental factors driving the business remain intact. The only...