Market Overview

The Services PMI for December came in at 54.1, easily beating street expectations of 53.5. The results were two points higher over Novembers data and the sixth straight month of expansion. Although...

Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook discussed the year ahead at a conference this week. Cook discussed monetary policy and stock market valuations, among other topics. She also opined on...

We did it, folks; we shorted the US Dollar Index right at its top – congratulations. As the situation in the USD Index is playing out as I described it previously, I’m quoting the relevant parts of...

Most bank analysts are projecting a modest upside for gold this year. Some are a bit more bullish (but not much) because of no meaningful cut in the US government’s gargantuan debt. "Trump's election...

Remember President George W. Bush’s “Hemispheric Energy” Dream? The Dream is not dead! Not only is President Trump going to make American Energy great again, but apparently the resignation of...

US economic activity looks set to post softer growth in the government’s upcoming fourth-quarter GDP report. Based on the median nowcast from several sources, output appears set to downshift to the...

After a long pause since the final rate hike this cycle in July 2023, the Federal Reserve initiated its easing cycle with a first-rate cut in September 2024. The only other time in recent history...

The status quo has it backwards: low rates are now essential to prop up the wreckage left from previous doses of default and cascading losses.The economy depends on two related drivers: low interest...

The December ISM Manufacturing PMI data came in better than expected on Monday morning, coming in at 49.3, which happens to be a 9-month high. Anything below 50 (orange line) is still in contraction...

It’s a big week for US economic data, which could push long-term rates towards 5%, especially if the data comes in stronger than expected. On Tuesday at 10:00 AM, we’ll get the JOLTS report and ISM...

In April last year I took a look at the market potential for a downturn that ultimately, never materialized. That scenario was negated by the break of the March high during the summer, followed by a...

Since the forecasts were so inaccurate in 2022, through 2023, you rarely hear any kind of recession talk these days, and for good reason, with the US job market being frighteningly consistent the...

While it seems every other bear has now thrown in the towel, Jeremy Grantham remains undaunted, telling The New Yorker, “technology-based financial optimism prevalent on Wall Street has been...

Market Overview: S&P 500 E-Mini Futures TheS&P 500 E-Mini market formed a monthly bear bar in December. The bears must create consecutive bear bars (something they haven’t been able to do...