Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Several months ago, we pointed out that municipal bond supply emanating from new projects has remained low from a historical perspective which has been driven by resistance on a state and local level...

Investment grade (IG) corporate bonds continue to attract investment dollars. The latest fund flows show about half a billion inflows into IG ETFs (like LQD) and $1.8 billion into IG mutual...

The third quarter of 2012 saw the municipal bond market outperform US Treasuries after a second quarter that saw a precipitous drop in Treasury yields. To give you a flavor, at the start of the third...

Shares of ISHARES Barclays 20+ Year Treas (NYSE: TLT) have reached their declining-trend resistance line, which should result in a reversal.On Wednesday, TLT reached the resistance line created by...

With the approach of the "fiscal cliff" in the US, it might be useful to consider what effect significant deficit reduction might have on the Treasury market. Conventional wisdom appears to be all...

Several days ago, we talked about the Federal Reserve’s intent of improving financial conditions by way of balance sheet expansion and QE. Their recent policy action is generally supportive of...

The economic data continues to drip weaker. Yesterday’s Chicago Fed index was the lowest since 2009, and while the Dallas Fed index rose, it remains negative. These aren’t major...

There are many critics blasting the recent Fed’s announcement of QE3, suggesting it’s ineffectiveness since Treasury rates are higher or that mortgage rates are stagnant and not enough to...

The folks over at Elliot Wave International caught my attention yesterday with a recently published article on the growing risks for bond investors. In our own work, I have warned investors that it...

An end result of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programs, including Operation Twist, is the Fed's balance sheet has swelled with the growth in U.S. Treasury holdings. In 2011, the Fed...

TIPS have gone from being rich on an absolute basis, but cheap against nominal bonds, to (still) rich on an absolute basis, but fair versus nominal bonds as nominal yields have risen. That statement...

This is the first episode of “We Eat Dollar Weighted Returns.” Here’s the twist: investors in some bond ETFs have done better than those who bought at the beginning and held. Now,...

With the recent sell off in the U.S. Treasury 10-Year fueled by the Federal Reserve’s expansion of its balance sheet and the subsequent rally in equities, support has held at 1.89%. While bond...