Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Inflation-adjusted interest rates are rising, rapidly. It wasn’t all that long ago that pundits and markets were worrying about the fallout from negative real rates. In short order, the risk has...

Last week marked the official start of autumn—or so we’re told. Here in San Antonio, the daytime high temperatures are still hovering in the mid-90s.The week also felt like a huge pivotal...

One major theme of 2022 is the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to squash inflation. Case in point, the Fed raised rates another 75 basis points on Wednesday.Will this be enough? What’s to...

As comments from heads of central banks go, yesterday’s press conference was relatively lucid. For anyone who remains confused about the likely path ahead for monetary policy, well, they...

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lift its target interest rate by 75 basis points tomorrow (Wed., Sep. 21). The question is whether the bond market has priced in the change. That’s a...

The benchmark United States 10-Year Treasury Yield rose to its highest level since April 2011 as investors brace for another major interest rate hike this week.10-Year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to...

Many astute bond investors are baffled by rising bond yields. Economic activity is slowing, inflation expectations are falling, the Fed is aggressively fighting inflation, and QT has begun. In the...

I hadn’t looked at these charts in a while. Good GOD, interest rates have gone insane! And in case you think a Recession isn’t coming directly our way…………I...

Stocks have been tumbling lately and several indexes are trading in oversold territory on a short-term basis. But, the bigger picture continues to be troubling. One trading ETF, or indicator, that...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says more “pain” is coming, and the Treasury market believes him. The clearest sign of confidence in the central banker’s advisory is the renewed...

We’re revisiting treasury bonds even though they were the subject of our previous post. The resistance in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) served well as a backstop...

On an intraday basis, equities reached multi-month highs on Thursday. All I can say is: bonds aren’t buying it. Just look at what’s going on with the high-yield world. Bearish engulfing...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade below its recent peak. Yesterday’s softer-than-expected rise in consumer inflation for July supports a case for expecting the 10-year rate to...

After celebrating a brief “head and shoulders” bearish breakdown on the daily, the U.S 10-year Treasury yield returned back above the all important neckline (around 2.65%). This is...