Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Avoiding another 75-basis-point hike in September looks tough Policymakers say focus should be on inflation, not recession Central banks, including the Fed, made mistakes that have led to...

The US 10-Year yield is balanced on long-term support. Is this because investors aren't afraid of inflation anymore and thus trust the Fed? Or there is another recession on the horizon? Time will...

German Bund yields holding on to last week’s gains confirm the market’s recessionary mood. We identify potential drivers for 10-year yields crossing below 1%. US data should add to the...

Treasury yields on the 10-year note are balancing on daily support, that is on the neckline of a bearish potential head & shoulders formation. In case of a break below, this would be good for...

One of the most important themes during the first half of 2022 is rising interest rates. With the Federal Reserve focused on stopping inflation, it’s a legitimate concern.But is there also a...

The Treasury yield curve is widely used as a first approximation of estimating recession risk. This is usually limited to one or two sets of maturities. Does this simple model find traction if we...

Fixed-income markets in the US reverted to their traditional role of delivering upside support when the rest of the portfolio tanks. It’s too soon to say if this is a return to form for bonds...

Fed policymakers leaning to 75 basis-point hike this month FOMC voter Bullard calling for 4.0% policy rate by end-2022 ECB faces dilemma as Russian gas cuts dampen economic outlook Federal Reserve...

3% plus United States 10-Year yields seem to have been too much for the market now. Was it the weak stocks and weakening economy driving yield expectations lower? However, the bond market is still not...

The destruction of 'phantom wealth' via default has always been the only way to clear the financial system of unpayable debt burdens and extremes of rentier / wealth dominance. The notion that the...

Short-term yields rise on more aggressive rate hike expectations…The logical, first-order effect of the hotter-than-expected inflation report was that it drove up expectations for near-term...

The MOVE Index measures Treasury rate volatility through options pricing Daily bond market swings are the wildest since the Global Financial Crisis  Yield volatility and credit spreads are key...

The yield on the United States 10-Year Treasury note slipped below its 2-Year counterpart for the first time in 15 years.The yield on the benchmark 10-Treasury tumbled 10 points below the 2-year rate,...

As growth concerns clash with further tightening from the Fed, all popular measures of the US yield curve are inverting, except for one—the 10-year/3-month spread, which, although flattening...