Bonds Analysis & Opinion

For someone who uses the bond markets as important indicators to the macro analysis, I am the furthest thing from an astute bond trader and am certainly not a bond investor. This probably owes to the...

Last month I reported that the ‘fair value’ of the US 10-year Treasury yield appeared “lofty” relative to the average estimate for a combination model. In the weeks since, the...

Bond market returns for 2022 have been horrific, right along the credit curve. For 2023, returns will be helped by a higher starting running yield and subsequent falls in market rates. Bonds will be a...

The recent rise in real yields for inflation-indexed Treasuries (TIPS) looks compelling for locking in relatively attractive payout rates, but the usual risks with bonds still applies. That...

This is a monthly chart of the iShares 1-5 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ:IGSB). The chart was sent to me by a technician although the chart sent wasn’t particularly legible...

The rise in interest rates has been meteoric, with mortgage rates reaching levels not seen in nearly two decades.The 10-year U.S. treasury bond yield is highly watched as a leading indicator, and that...

I loaded the 60-day intraday history of all the ETFs I follow, and one of them stood out among all the rest: bonds (by way of TLT). Oh my lord, why didn’t I just put my entire account into TLT...

Rising Interest rates have been very hard on stocks and bonds so far this year.But are any ETFs doing well during this rapidly rising rate environment? Yup. The ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury...

U.S. government bonds offering inflation hedging provided the only positive return for the major asset classes in last week’s trading through Friday, Oct. 14, based on a set of proxy ETFs.The...

Generally, recessions are bullish for bonds. Which makes this 3.8% bond yield a “best recession bet.”Why are we talking bonds in a year where they have all been crushed? Well, that’s...

During the 3rd quarter of this year, we saw the 10-year treasury bond yield reach its highest level in nearly 15 years.This corresponded with mortgage rates reaching levels we hadn’t seen...

For a very long time, I have been writing in our Quarterly Inflation Outlook that TIPS were “relatively cheap, but absolutely expensive.” By that, I meant that TIPS real yields at -1%,...

Real (inflation-adjusted) yields have surged in recent weeks, raising the question of whether it’s timely to buy inflation-indexed Treasuries (a.k.a. TIPS).Maybe, but before you dive in, keep in...

The BoE has postponed the planned sale of UK government bonds amid uncertain market conditions.To stabilize the markets, the Bank of England plans to buy long-dated bonds and postpone the planned...