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Bonds Analysis & Opinion

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James Picerno
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Peaks as Fed Signals Pause By James Picerno - May 11, 2023 3

The wide spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and CapitalSpectator.com’s lesser fair-value estimate continues to narrow, albeit slowly. As outlined on these pages in recent months, the...

Chris Kimble
Treasury Bonds Poised for a Big Move By Chris Kimble - May 08, 2023 1

As the Federal Reserve continues to fight inflation by raising interest rates, the market is growing uncertain about future rate hikes.Today, we share a chart comparing the 10 Year Treasury...

James Picerno
10-Year Treasury Rate Set to Fall as Inflation Eases By James Picerno - Apr 14, 2023 5

The 10-year Treasury rate continues to trade well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the days of a large premium look numbered. As evidence mounts that inflation continues to...

James Picerno
Why the Bond Market Is Becoming More Volatile By James Picerno - Apr 12, 2023

Last month we looked at how stock market volatility ebbs and flowsHow Monitoring Volatility Regimes Helps Anticipate Key Market Pivots through time. Let’s pick up this thread and do the same for...

James Picerno
Corporate Bonds Ex-US Led Market Gainers Last Week By James Picerno - Apr 10, 2023

Bonds issued by companies outside the US rose for a fifth straight week, securing the strongest performance for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETFs in last week’s trading.Invesco...

Steve Saville
A Yield Curve Reversal Looms By Steve Saville - Apr 04, 2023

The US 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread, a proxy for the US yield curve, has rebounded sharply over the past couple of weeks (refer to the following daily chart) from more than 100 basis points below...

James Picerno
U.S. Bond Rally Signals Pause in Rate Hikes By James Picerno - Mar 24, 2023

Turmoil in the bank industry and renewed concerns of economic headwinds are driving expectations that Federal Reserve's interest-rate hiking is at or near an end. In turn, the outlook has sparked a...

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