Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The wide spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and CapitalSpectator.com’s lesser fair-value estimate continues to narrow, albeit slowly. As outlined on these pages in recent months, the...

As the Federal Reserve continues to fight inflation by raising interest rates, the market is growing uncertain about future rate hikes.Today, we share a chart comparing the 10 Year Treasury...

Trailing yields have recently increased for most of the major asset classes, based on a set of ETF proxies. The question is whether the relatively high payout rates offset concerns about the...

Markets are understandably skittish about the health of the financial sector, which allows bonds to act as a safe haven. We would be wary of acting on large market moves ahead of a week heavy in event...

The 10-year Treasury rate continues to trade well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the days of a large premium look numbered. As evidence mounts that inflation continues to...

Last month we looked at how stock market volatility ebbs and flowsHow Monitoring Volatility Regimes Helps Anticipate Key Market Pivots through time. Let’s pick up this thread and do the same for...

If you have been reading my public articles on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) over the last half a year, then you would know of my expectation to see the bond market rally into...

Bonds issued by companies outside the US rose for a fifth straight week, securing the strongest performance for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETFs in last week’s trading.Invesco...

The US 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread, a proxy for the US yield curve, has rebounded sharply over the past couple of weeks (refer to the following daily chart) from more than 100 basis points below...

There’s a “delayed reaction” dividend play (for tax-free 5% yields) waiting for us in municipal bonds right now—and it’s not going to last.I know, I know....

Turmoil in the bank industry and renewed concerns of economic headwinds are driving expectations that Federal Reserve's interest-rate hiking is at or near an end. In turn, the outlook has sparked a...

Back in August, I wrote about the U.S. yield curve’s deep inversion and why it was important. I said, “. . .This is why the U.S. yield curve is so deeply inverted. Speculators believe the...

Bank contagion has officially spread to international markets, raising fears that last week’s dramatic failures of U.S. lenders Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank may be just the start...

US interest rates have been on a roller coaster lately, but there’s a case for considering the possibility that yields have peaked. The wild card is the Federal Reserve, of course. The critical...