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Nikkei 225 Mini Futures -

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36,770.00 -980.00    -2.60%
- Closed. Currency in JPY
Type:  Index Future
Market:  Japan
Underlying:  Nikkei 225
  • Prev. Close: 36,770.00
  • Open: 37,610.00
  • Day's Range: 36,770.00 - 37,630.00
Nikkei 225 36,770.00 -980.00 -2.60%

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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 12 hours ago
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As soon as all the little guys have piled in the institutions will start selling and taking out their stops, earning them nice profits.
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 13 hours ago
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Market makers are trying to hold this up. But their efforts will simply make for more dramatic drops later. Careful out there.
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 14 hours ago
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All the downvoting of my posts that continue from bulls as they lose their shirts is quite amusing. As for my posts, they are informed ones. All of the concepts come from years of reading and hard study. If you want to rage against them and blame the messenger, that is not my problem.
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Willie Booker
Willie Booker 14 hours ago
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No im a bear, but you write the most annoying essays.
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 12 hours ago
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Too bad your reading skills don't allow you to make sense of them.
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 12 hours ago
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Willie Booker Nor do you lacking IQ points.
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Willie Booker
Willie Booker 11 hours ago
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Chuck Kay no one lacks reading skills. You write boring ass essays lol
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 10 hours ago
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Some people like to understand the hows and whys of everything. I know I do and then some. Knowledge is power. That doesn't mean all of the books I read knocked things out of the park. A lot of them were relatively dull, but so what? If you want excitement, go to Disneyland. And if want to read for excitement read Stephen King. Nobody is forcing you to read my posts and vote on them. If you think I just pull this stuff out of a hat, without having done my homework, you would be wrong.
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay Apr 03, 2025 3:00AM ET
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A lot of Japanese institutions are in the yen carry trade. It seems probable they will start to expect trouble ahead and start moving out of that trade en masse. That will very likely happen, and as a result dollar yen will tank big, and so will this. Put another way, it seems likely that the level of tariffs for Japan and the rest of the world are higher than expected. That may prompt institutions to take a closer look at the numbers and see the storm that is approaching, causing them to close that trade. GLTA.
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Leo caprio
Leo caprio 19 hours ago
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Have you not sold any of your positions ?
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 18 hours ago
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Leo caprio My reverse ETFs on this index? Nope. I have no intention of selling one share above 20k. I always make more holding a position vs moving in and out. If you move in and out it can easily run away from you and usually does.
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 17 hours ago
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And honestly, I think this will sail far below 20k. To 16k minimum.
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay Apr 02, 2025 10:24PM ET
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Japan has held rates low with all kinds of excuses, which not only helped to pump up a massive bubble in Japan but also elsewhere via the carry trade--as Japan ploughed its massive US currency holdings into US securities. If the BOJ was logical and concerned about the people of Japan and anything but the very short term they would have raised rates into high inflation. In fact, the correct thing is to have raised them decades ago. That way they would have prevented zombie companies from getting free money, misallocating capital and competing with good companies on price, and creating deflation in Japan--ironically what the BOJ was supposedly trying to fight in the first place. But rather than fight, they promoted deflation. Anyhow, since they did not raise rates into inflation it has roared since then, doubling and even tripling (or more) food prices in some cases. And now that reality is kicking in, the bubble is losing air. My question is why did they not raise rates so that they could lower them when a crisis hit. Why did they not raise rates to head off inflation? Why do they insist on endless zombie company support via endless emergency crisis rates and even in the face of high inflation? Two reasons. First because they held rates super low for so long that they allowed the government to take on massive debt that it needs to get down. Second, so they could sell more in the US. Now the US has noticed. And so now, Japan gets 24% tariffs slapped on imported Japanese goods. What will this do to the profits of exporters out of Japan into the US? It will hammer them. My question is, then why are people buying the dip here and why have they continued to do so since the top? Lol. Because they have been trained by central bankers for decades to buy every dip because the central banks rescued them every time. But the BOJ has a MASSIVE balance sheet now. The government has MASSIVE debt levels to contend with. AND with rates already at extreme emergency levels, the BOJ has little power to lower rates. What a joke. My point? Buying the dip has not been profitable for some time now mostly since the Nikkei is a massive bubble. The drop will continue until under 20k, possibly as low as 12k. GLTA.
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Luca Poggi
Luca Poggi Apr 02, 2025 10:24PM ET
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yeah because hiking rates while in a liquidity trap and deflation notoriously helps kickstarting a florid economy again lol study macroeconomics
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay Apr 02, 2025 10:24PM ET
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Luca Poggi The problem with not hiking rates is threefold. First, you open the door to reckless government spending. Second, you cause savers to save harder because they get no return on savings. Third, you prop up zombie companies which create deflation. I am far from alone in my thinking. Your elementary macroeconomics view is very one sided and narrow. Sorry.
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay Apr 02, 2025 10:24PM ET
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Furthermore, you don't hold rates below 2% for decades. You hold rates below 2% for very short periods at most. They are extreme emergency measures. Japan's current rates in the face of high inflation are a complete farce. I would at that the measures the BOJ has taken were not effective either, and that they kept doing the same thing endlessly even though deflation continued. Doing the same thing and expecting different results is what is defined as nuts. The BOJ has NEVER acted logically, nor has the government of Japan. The fact that Japan's balance sheet is massive, rates are subzero, the Japanese government debt is massive and they have a massive bubble on their hands points to utter and complete mismanagement of Japan's affairs. In a logical world, the BOJ would not have created a bubble and then held rates at extreme emergency rates. Second, the government would have quit its reckless spending decades ago and not fostered a handout based economy vs one that relies on competition. The current situation in Japan is a disaster in multiple ways and there is no silver lining.
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay Apr 02, 2025 10:24PM ET
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If you wanted to broaden your view away from Macroeconomics 101, I would highly recommend reading the Price of Time by Edward Chancellor. And thinking about Japan as you read it.
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my life my rule
my life my rule Apr 02, 2025 8:27PM ET
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in the end bulls always WIN
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay Apr 02, 2025 8:27PM ET
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The bulls didn't win after 1929. And they lost big money if they held on through the sixties and 70s because inflation crushed them. In Japan, the bulls who bought in 1989 had to wait until last year to just break even and make a small profit. And now there are massive bubbles in the US and Japan. In the US the value of housing vs GDP is higher than it was in 2008. And market cap to GDP for major indices like this one show that stocks are massive bubbles. Buy into a bubble and you WILL lose big if you hold on. The longer you hold on out a few years at least, the bigger your losses from here are going to be.
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Willie Booker
Willie Booker Apr 02, 2025 8:27PM ET
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Chuck Kay chuck isnt accurate either. But i dont care to debate with perma bulls or permabears lol
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay Apr 02, 2025 8:27PM ET
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Not accurate on what count? The info is all there on the numbers if you bother to check them. As for being a perma bull or perma bear, I am neither. I am a bear in a bubble, if I even do anything. And a bull in a cheap market or fair one with specific undervalued stocks. As for your take on things, I don't see much value in it. You are willing to buy into a crashing market because you want to get rich quick and your indicators tell you to. If you had traded or been investing for multiple decades, such as through crashes starting in the 80s and later you would know that is the road to poverty.
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Willie Booker
Willie Booker Apr 02, 2025 8:27PM ET
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Chuck Kay im not looking to buy this market at all. If youve noticed ive been short 90% if trades. Your hypotheticals of picking the worst bear market in history then deliberately timing it to the next biggest bear market 30 years later is the problem.
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay Apr 02, 2025 8:27PM ET
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I dont follow you at all, and dont follow you putting words in my mouth. I have never deliberately timed anything and have no clue what you are on about at all. I know that the market cap to GDP numbers of this index indicate a massive bubble. Second, I know that the PERs of a number of the most heavily weighted stocks in this index are clearly in bubble territory, which back up that view. Third, I know that profit booms ALWAYS prove fleeting. NOTHING long term justifies the price of this index. GDP has been roughly flat for decades, outside of short term fluctuations, and would literally have to near double or more OVERNIGHT to justify the current price level and the prices over the last year or so. But dont believe me, if you must. You will talk differently as this passes below 20k in the not too distant future. As for your actions. I was stunned when you said you went long only a matter of days ago. In my books, you, my friend, are a gambler. No matter what you say.
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Willie Booker
Willie Booker Apr 02, 2025 8:15PM ET
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Insanity level volatility lol. Down an extra 900 points after CME open then rebound 1K points. Going to be like 2008
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SARAY MÜPTELASI
SARAY MÜPTELASI Apr 02, 2025 7:47PM ET
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no longer, this is a trash!
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay Apr 02, 2025 7:46PM ET
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I have been downvoted endlessly by gamblers despite posting nothing but posts based on reality and multiple decades of experience in markets, having worked on Wall Street myself, taught accounting and finance as a university professor, and the rarest kind of accurate in depth analysis based on having read in the four digit number of books on markets and everything related. The fact that central bankers act out of supporting political agendas and don't remain unbiased is going to make for an awful hangover because these guys supplied endless punchbowl and avoided the hangover by simply keeping everyone drinking Kool-Aid and punch. That people are stunned by recent falls in markets is a joke. The bubbles, thanks to endless Kool-Aid and punchbowl, are still MASSIVE. GLTA.
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay Apr 02, 2025 6:30PM ET
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This is only the beginning. Give it five months, and this will be in the 20,000s. It could even be below 20k. Japan relies on exports to the US big time. Export companies with PERs of over fifty could drop five fold.
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