ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Since the recovery from the financial crisis, nominal wage growth in the eurozone has been sluggish. This is often attributed to weaker trade unions. But wage growth in real terms is higher now than...

Markets ignoring French election results suggests that their fear of monetary tightening supersedes other drivers. The ECB has managed to cap sovereign spreads for now, but questions remain about its...

EnergyThe oil market managed to eke out a small gain yesterday, amid thinner volumes due to the holiday in the US. There is little in the way of strong fundamental catalysts driving the market at the...

In quiet markets on Monday, comments from UK MPC member Catherine Mann drew attention. She said that the BoE falling behind Fed tightening could leave GBP/USD vulnerable and add to inflation.We know...

The Bank of England has resisted the temptation to follow the Fed and other global central banks into a more aggressive phase of tightening. Instead, the Bank has opted for a fourth consecutive 25bp...

The Federal Reserve has increased rates by 75 bp and has signalled a willingness to maintain this pace of tightening at the July FOMC meeting. The Fed funds rate will end the year well above 3% with...

The Fed delivered 75bp, and pre-warned for another one in July. The approach of big figure 4% is on the horizon now, for market rates and the Fed, and a curve flattening bias.The European Central Bank...

The dollar is consolidating after yesterday's well-flagged 75bp hike from the Fed. US yields fell sharply from intra-day highs after Fed Chair Powell said that 75bp hikes would not be common.Yet the...

We can tentatively say that UK worker shortages have stopped getting worse, but high levels of sickness and lower inward migration mean they are unlikely to improve dramatically in the near term.This...

The upward pressure on rates is relentless as central banks are seen to act more aggressively. The trade-off for risk assets and spreads is clear, but for now tackling inflation takes precedence....

EnergyThe oil market managed to weather the broader sell-off across financial markets better than the rest of the commodities complex. Having traded lower for much of the day, ICE Brent still managed...

Markets are fully pricing in a 75bp rate hike by the Fed tomorrow, and we acknowledge this is looking to be an increasingly likely scenario.At this stage, we cannot exclude the implied probability of...

EU members have finally agreed on a watered-down ban on Russian oil and refined product imports. The move is still relatively supportive for the market, given the ban covers the bulk of Russian oil...

EnergyEU members have finally agreed to a ban on Russian oil. However, the agreement has been watered down quite a bit from the original proposal. Instead of targeting all Russian crude oil imports,...

EU leaders last night took the decision to push ahead with an embargo on Russian oil—exempting pipeline oil imports to land-locked nations. The decision to deprive Russia of valuable export...

EnergyOil finished last week off strongly. ICE Brent settled above US$119/bbl, which took its gains for the week to more than 6%. Tightness in the refined products market continues to prove supportive...