ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Contrary to the national football team, the German economy did not have a rude awakening at the start of the summer. Instead, the economy has returned as an outperformer of the eurozone.Haste makes...

While weakness in the Chinese yuan (CNY) is being touted as a source of global market risk, we find limited evidence of broad-based contagion from independent CNY weakness – with the spillover...

Hong Kong GDP growth in 2Q was weaker than expected, which could be an early sign of the negative impact from the bilateral trade war between Mainland China and the US. The linked exchange rate system...

Canada’s foreign affairs minister may be upbeat on recent NAFTA trade talks, but there are growing risks that an agreement just between the US and Mexico could leave Canada out in the...

A sharp drop in the Turkish lira could have implications for Europe's banks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. We expect the yen to remain a preferred safe-haven vehicle.USD: Hard to talk...

President Trump’s criticism of China and the EU for manipulating exchange rates and the Fed for hiking rates reversed some of the USD strength. As for near-term implications, this should put...

The pound weakened to its lowest level against the US dollar and euro since Sep/Oct 2017 on Wednesday. It's not all down to Brexit.GBP: Current weakness may be due to seasonal factorsThe pound...

Trade data has yet to reflect the full impact of tariffs, as export and import growth surprised on the upside. But smaller monthly bilateral trade between China and the US shows the tariffs have...

The recent depreciation of the yuan hasn't seen massive capital outflows from China and surprisingly the country's foreign exchange reserves have increased to $3117.95 billion. Going forward, we...

The June drop in industrial production is too small to affect a solid growth performance over the entire second quarterBroad-based declineGerman industrial production took a hit in June, dropping by...

Disappointing new orders data show tentative signs of trade tensions hitting the German economy, which doesn't bode well for the industrial outlook in the second half of the yearGerman industrial...

China retaliates with the US raising tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion of goods. At the same time, the central bank imposes 20% reserves on short yuan derivatives to prevent capital outflows...

US payrolls growth of 157,000 is disappointing but there were upward revisions, and forward-looking indicators suggest more big jobs gains to come. Mixed report The July US jobs report shows payrolls...

A disappointing service sector PMI has dragged the composite downwards. Brexit is a growing worry for business and Carney's warnings won't help.The July reading of the UK’s composite purchasing...

The Federal Reserve has left policy unchanged. The accompanying statement continues to provide an upbeat assessment, necessitating ongoing “gradual” interest rate hikes. The Federal...

President Trump’s penchant for shaking things up has evidently, although presumably not intentionally, spread to data relationships. What is causing this and will things ever return to...