ING Economic and Financial Analysis

A surprisingly strong Ifo index suggests that the German economy is defying geopolitical and trade risks. The growth party is all set to continue.Germany’s most prominent leading indicator just...

If you're looking for clues about central bankers' next steps, you're unlikely to find them at Jackson Hole. We don't expect to hear anything new from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the annual economic...

The headline figure was just a confirmation of last week’s first estimate. The German economy grew by 0.5% QoQ in the second quarter, from a slightly upwardly revised 0.4% in 1Q. On the year,...

China’s decision to include automobiles in the retaliatory tariffs list is a more aggressive move than we expected, but for now the real concern is what the ‘qualitatively measures’...

A guilty plea by President Trump’s ex-lawyer and guilty verdict for his former campaign chairman have injected a big dose of political uncertainty into the dollar. What now?USD: US politics and...

Can President Trump instruct the US Treasury to intervene in FX markets and weaken the dollar? Twelve months ago, we wouldn't have even considered this question. But under this new mercantilist US...

Central bankers gather at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this week for their annual economic symposium. Will the Fed acknowledge that the market volatility in emerging markets is partly due to its own policy...

Could the Fed come to the rescue for global markets this week? A wonky debate about the Fed's role as the global central bank may be the highlight of the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium next...

The People's Bank of China is actively closing possible capital outflow loopholes and this firewall building will allow it to lower interest rates and weaken the yuan, which makes it very likely that...

Turkish policymakers have bought themselves some time but caution reigns as the White House keeps the pressure on and S&P gets set to downgrade Turkey’s sovereign credit rating.USD: Tariffs...

Reports that a Chinese delegation will be heading to Washington for trade talks have added to the dead cat bounce that we’ve seen in risky assets.USD: Trading hopes of a better political world...

Contrary to the national football team, the German economy did not have a rude awakening at the start of the summer. Instead, the economy has returned as an outperformer of the eurozone.Haste makes...

While weakness in the Chinese yuan (CNY) is being touted as a source of global market risk, we find limited evidence of broad-based contagion from independent CNY weakness – with the spillover...

Hong Kong GDP growth in 2Q was weaker than expected, which could be an early sign of the negative impact from the bilateral trade war between Mainland China and the US. The linked exchange rate system...

Canada’s foreign affairs minister may be upbeat on recent NAFTA trade talks, but there are growing risks that an agreement just between the US and Mexico could leave Canada out in the...

A sharp drop in the Turkish lira could have implications for Europe's banks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. We expect the yen to remain a preferred safe-haven vehicle.USD: Hard to talk...