ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Hurricane Florence risks a softer set of US September jobs numbers, but the clean-up, rebuild and replace effort will see a corresponding bounce in October.Jobs growthThe pace of jobs creation has...

Reports that UK Prime Minister Theresa May will make a concession on the Irish border backstop have helped nudge the dial towards a Withdrawal Agreement deal by year-end. But two things remain to be...

It’s mid-term election time and opinion polls suggest the Republicans are under pressure. The loss of Congressional control would make life increasingly difficult for the President and have...

Finally some good news on the trade front. A trilateral trade deal between the US, Canada and Mexico has been agreed in principle, helping to lift the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso. However, the...

In a politically charged FX world, expect price action in the upcoming week to be dominated by European politics - with both the Italian fiscal budget and Brexit noise at the Tory party conference...

The Italian ruling parties agreed a 2.4% fiscal deficit for 2019, a much more expansionary budget that risks pushback from the European Commission. We think any widening in Italian swap spreads will...

Manufacturing and services data dominate next week, giving us an insight into how businesses are coping with trade concerns and weakening economic momentum in Europe.US: Weather takes its toll?We get...

German inflation at seven-year high but still little evidence of a sustainable increase in underlying inflationBased on the results of seven regional states, German headline inflation accelerated in...

With some Hong Kong banks increasing their benchmark lending rates, mortgage repayments could become increasingly difficult, affecting demand for properties and other asset markets, too.Stressed...

While other data still have yet to show the trade war impact, industrial profits seem to show that the trade war is eating up profits of manufacturers in China, and even more so for foreign...

We expect the central bank to stay put for 2018 and perhaps even for 2019 as it is difficult to cut interest rates to help a gradually slowing economy. The central bank has to save rate cuts as a last...

How long will the Fed's tightening cycle last? That's what's most important for the direction of the dollar. Here are three key signals to look out for.USD: Expect a ‘buy the rumour, sell the...

The strength of the domestic economy and rising price pressures will ensure another rate hike on Wednesday, but will emerging market and trade concerns result in a slower path of Fed tightening next...

Swedish politics, Bank of England speakers and a Fed meeting - which should conclude in a 25bp rate hike - are among next week's highlights for developed marketsUS: Gradually climbingThe US highlight...

President Trump has announced the latest round of tariffs on imports from China with China vowing an immediate response. With the president's approval rating at a four-month low and the mid-terms fast...

After announcing 10% tariffs on $200 billion of goods, the US said it would raise it to 25% in 2019. The tariff list has also been revised to exclude some consumer goods. We believe that China will...