ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The dollar is inching lower again this morning and we think the ongoing correction could extend a bit more as optimism on US-China relations appears to be lifting sentiment. That said, a broader and...

Bond market returns for 2022 have been horrific, right along the credit curve. For 2023, returns will be helped by a higher starting running yield and subsequent falls in market rates. Bonds will be a...

Energy - Lower US Oil Supply Growth Oil prices came under further pressure yesterday, with ICE) Brent settling more than 2.6% lower as COVID cases in China rise, while the government recently made...

Whilst supply runs its course this week, and the macro-focused participants await US CPI tomorrow, one development that has caught our attention is the sharp tightening of swap spreads. There...

The bulk of the complex came under pressure yesterday after Chinese health officials reaffirmed their zero-Covid policy. Meanwhile, milder than usual weather in Europe is set to continue for at least...

The dollar remains in correction mode and the market is watching the news from China regarding the approach to its Covid-19 policy. Today's market focus will be on the US mid-term elections. We expect...

The oil market managed to settle higher yesterday despite a 75bp hike from the US Fed and comments suggesting that rates will peak at a higher level than previously expected. That said, they also...

The Bank of England faced a choice today between a ‘hawkish’ 50 basis-point rate hike and a ‘dovish’ 75bp – and in the event, it chose the latter path. Unlike the Fed...

The commodities complex came under pressure yesterday due to US Dollar strength. Markets will likely be focused on the FOMC meeting later this week, where the US Fed is expected to hike rates by...

The market is preparing for the Fed meeting and the focus will be on US sentiment data today. RBA raises rates by 25bp to 2.85%, the highest since 2013. Yesterday's eurozone data is pushing the ECB to...

Market expectations are firmly behind a fourth consecutive 75bp interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next week. The key story is whether the Fed opens the door to a slower pace thereafter or if...

It is a busy week for FX markets, with key policy rate meetings on both sides of the Atlantic and some tier-one data releases. The question to be answered this week: is the Federal Reserve ready to...

It’s not surprising that wheat and corn opened higher this morning after Russia suspended the Black Sea grain deal over the weekend. Meanwhile, markets will be focused on the outcome of the FOMC...

The Bank of England holds the keys to the next gilt rally, if it can convince markets that a more dovish path is the right choice. The USD curve re-steepening on pivot hopes has run out of steam,...

Here are our four scenarios for the European Central Bank and their related implications for the currency and rates markets. A 75bp ECB hike is our call; it's what markets are expecting too. Attaching...

As the FX market awaits the big ECB and Fed meetings over the next week, the hottest topic right now is what Chinese authorities are doing with the renminbi. Having tried to stabilise it since late...