ING Economic and Financial Analysis

A rebound in manufacturing and industrial output, coupled with a decent performance from the consumer sector and net trade and inventories being less of a drag support our view of 3%+ GDP growth in...

Eyewatering increases in household energy bills between now and next April mean inflation is likely to head above 12% from October. But core inflation might have peaked - or is close to peaking - now...

European natural gas prices continue to strengthen, which is having an impact on industrial output in the region. Yesterday, yet another metal smelter in Europe announced that it would halt production...

FOMC minutes as a communication tool against easing expectations should keep the US dollar supported. German recession is becoming inevitable. Sterling strikes back at the euro, backed by a hawkish...

University of Michigan consumer sentiment bounced more than expected in August with falling gasoline prices, rising equity markets and a robust labour market relieving some of the pressure on...

The market has moved on from last week’s lower-than-expected CPI print. Instead a stronger USD has weighed on much of the commodities complex, whilst Chinese data released this morning has not...

The week starts with focus on China's 10bp cut in its one-year Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF). Rather than rallying on the prospect of stimulus, commodity currencies have softened on the view that...

Quite a bit which has changed in the oil market over the past two weeks. Two weeks ago sentiment was fairly negative, given the continued demand concerns. This negative sentiment appears to have only...

U.S. markets are in the driving seat as CPI looms. With the labour market providing the room and inflation data stressing the necessity of further Fed tightening, the US curve inversion can extend...

Markets are enjoying some temporary calm and cross-market measures of volatility are sinking back to levels seen in early June. Barring an explosive US July CPI release or some major escalation in the...

U.S. markets are in the driving seat as CPI looms. With the labour market providing the room and inflation data stressing the necessity of further Fed tightening, the U.S. curve inversion can extend...

Another upside surprise on US jobs growth with employment back at record highs. The fall in gasoline prices is set to boost household spending power, prompting an expected rebound in 3Q GDP of 3%+....

Markets are enjoying some temporary calm and cross-market measures of volatility are sinking back to levels seen in early June. Barring an explosive US July CPI release or some major escalation in the...

The Fed delivered another 75bps of tightening but attention is turning to the end of this cycle. In Europe, German inflation could light a fire under the front-end but long-end rates seem determined...

The Federal Reserve has raised the Fed funds target range by 75bp, making it a cumulative 225bp of rate hikes this year so far. The Fed's work is not yet done and we look for a further 125bp of hikes...

Yesterday's long-squeeze is not a sign of a longer-lasting soft period for the dollar, in our view. Upside risks for the greenback remain material due to an unstable global risk environment and still...