Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Yesterday I wrote about the crowded short trade that boosted energy futures 40-50% from the lows of only a few weeks ago. A related crowded trade was the short-inflation trade, and it also was related...

In this past weekend’s newsletter, I covered the current technical position of oil/energy-related investments and the recent bear-market rally. The latter is most relevant to today’s...

Weekly Large Trader COT Report: 10 Year US Treasury Note 10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large 10-year treasury note futures traders and speculators reduced their overall bullish...

Yesterday Japan’s government borrowed money on terms that require the lenders to pay rather than receive interest for ten years. And not only was that bond issue snapped up, it was vastly...

If the iShares iBoxx Dollar High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (N:HYG) led the equity markets into their bear phase, then we should be watching to see if it leads it out of the darkness into the light.The...

Weekly Large Trader COT Report: 10-Year US Treasury Note CFTC Futures data shows speculators raised bets to bullish net standing 10-Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large 10-year treasury...

Standard Chartered (L:STAN) reported a massive yearly loss for 2015, the bank’s first in almost thirty years. The results were so bad that the company has publicly stated it might even...

Curve Watchers Anonymous has its eyes on the yield curve as always. A pair of charts, five-year duration and lower vs. one-year and higher looks increasingly recessionary.Yield Curve 1-Year to...

Let's have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range...

Last week’s deep dive in Treasury yields continued to reverse course yesterday, offering a reprieve to the aggressive risk-off posture that’s been roiling markets lately. Today’s...

Weekly Large Trader COT Report: 10 Year US Treasury Note 10-Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial (Speculative) Positions: Large 10-year treasury note futures traders and speculators decreased bets in...

Nothing like a crazy day in the markets to get the blood flowing again. In our research, we typically focus on specific opportunities in the FX, commodity and equity markets, but we would be remiss if...

Long bond prices have been running higher for over 20 years. There have been a few pullbacks here and there, but like Ian Fleming’s the James Bond franchise, they just get right back up off the...

Yesterday’s tumble in US equities fueled another leg down in Treasury yields. As the bear market in stocks rolls on, the crowd continued to rush into the safe-haven trade, pushing the 10-year...