Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Yesterday I presented our 2016 inflation forecast to the investment committee for a multifamily office, and when I was putting the presentation together I developed one slide that really is a must-see...

Weekly Large Trader COT Report: 10 Year US Treasury Note CFTC Futures data shows speculators continued to raise bearish bets 10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large 10-year treasury...

Weekly Large Trader COT Report: 10 Year US Treasury Note CFTC Futures data shows speculators cut longs and added to shorts 10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large 10-year treasury note...

Treasury yields have made a sharp U-turn lately. The 2-year yield—considered the most sensitive to rate expectations—has been sliding this month, falling to 0.90% yesterday (Jan. 14),...

Companies in Japan now get paid to borrow money.In what may be the biggest central-bank sponsored bond lunacy yet, BOJ's Negative Corporate Bonds Yields Add to Distortions.The Bank of Japan’s...

As I have mentioned, I hope to offer more example option trades as a form of education. Yesterday I highlighted examples using options on JNK and SLV. (N:SLV) did well on Day 1, (N:JNK) did not. So a...

The fallout in liquidity and funding markets has been mostly attributed to the junk-bond bubble. Prices have fallen, and many precipitously, while yields have risen. But those are not the only...

On December 16, 2008, in what Ben Bernanke averred took a tremendous amount of “moral courage”, the Federal Reserve officially arrived at its Zero Interest Rate Policy. ZIRP was a huge win...

Weekly Large Trader COT Report: 10 Year US Treasury Note CFTC Futures data shows speculators trimmed their overall bullish positions 10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large 10-year...

Junk bonds have been in the news over the past few months, mostly in a bad way, as they have been falling in price since April of 2014. The chart above looks at the Junk Bond (N:HYG)/S&P 500...

Treasuries advanced for a sixth day, the longest winning streak in 13 months, as turmoil in Chinese markets drove demand for the relative safety of government debt.From 2-Year notes to 30-Year bonds,...

The Fed finally raised rates last month and ended the almost decade-long ZIRP policy and released their minutes of that meeting this afternoon. Let's take a close look at US Treasuries after that...

Since maximum fear in the financial markets tends to create demand for safer-haven bonds, the chart of long-term Treasuries (N:TLT) should be helpful from a risk-assessment perspective. If stocks...

The most important outbreak or story of 2015 had to have been the junk bond reversal. It combined all the major elements of what investors and economic agents are both fearing and, at one point in the...