Bonds Analysis & Opinion

ZN is Retesting its Red Megaphone VWAP & Navy Blue Inverse H&S Neckline The US 10 Year T-Note is retesting its inverse H&S neckline (navy blue on chart). It put in the orange megaphone to...

Picking up on the money market(s) discussion from Monday morning, bill rates once again were suggestively shallow. The 4-week T-bill was just 14 bps in “yield”, well below the Fed’s...

No doubt junk bonds have tanked over the past two years, diverging against the S&P 500. Historically, when Junk is weak the broad market tends to struggle to move much to the upside. Junk-bond ETF...

I am becoming increasingly concerned over the flattening yield curve. This curve enables us to get a first hand view of sentiment towards economic growth among bond investors and other large players...

In my post this morning on Yield Curve and Spreads: Fed's Real Policy Error in Pictures; What's Next? there were two important points I intended to make but didn't. First here's a repeat of two...

Weekly Large Trader COT Report: 10 Year US Treasury Note CFTC Futures data shows speculators net positions at -11,443 contracts 10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large 10-year treasury...

Inquiring minds may be interested in a detailed look at the yield curve and spreads between various durations following the Fed's Wednesday rate hike. Let's start with a long-term chart from 1996 to...

Junk bond markets are in a veritable melt down as the carnage stretches to a third straight day of falls that included the collapse of at least three credit funds. However, many within the market are...

The Fed's targeted inflation measure, the core PCE deflator, stood at 1.3%, well below the 2% target. They see the fresh sell-off in oil prices and are more concerned disinflation than inflation....

On December 16, 2008, in the closing act of a 30-year bull market in bonds, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) did something without precedent. They cut their target for the...

With junk bonds finally reverting to their intrinsic value, the question on everyone’s mind is “what blows up next?” Here’s the first in what might be a long, painful...

It is no secret that US credit markets have been increasingly stressed lately. Junk bonds are tanking and junk’s ratios to the relative quality of Investment Grade and Treasury have as well. The...

Investor attention at the end of last week's trading was focused on the sharp sell-off in high yield bonds, better know as junk bonds. This sell-off was precipitated by the firm, Third Avenue,...

Weekly Large Trader COT Report: 10 Year US Treasury Note CFTC Futures data shows speculators reduced long bets, raised short bets last week 10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large...