Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Last week’s deep dive in Treasury yields continued to reverse course yesterday, offering a reprieve to the aggressive risk-off posture that’s been roiling markets lately. Today’s...

Weekly Large Trader COT Report: 10 Year US Treasury Note 10-Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial (Speculative) Positions: Large 10-year treasury note futures traders and speculators decreased bets in...

Nothing like a crazy day in the markets to get the blood flowing again. In our research, we typically focus on specific opportunities in the FX, commodity and equity markets, but we would be remiss if...

Long bond prices have been running higher for over 20 years. There have been a few pullbacks here and there, but like Ian Fleming’s the James Bond franchise, they just get right back up off the...

Yesterday’s tumble in US equities fueled another leg down in Treasury yields. As the bear market in stocks rolls on, the crowd continued to rush into the safe-haven trade, pushing the 10-year...

When the June 2018 eurodollar futures price touched above 98.50 on October 2, I thought that was an impressive bid suggesting just how much negativity had survived the August liquidations. It was...

The 10-Year T-Note has Reached its Megaphone Top and Needs a Retrace to at Least the Megaphone VWAP The 10-year has reached the top of a megaphone (red on chart) on its 60-minute chart. It needs to...

Weekly Large Trader COT Report: 10 Year US Treasury Note 10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large 10-year treasury note futures traders and speculators trimmed their overall bullish...

In 2015 there was a great deal of “fear and loathing” related to the bond market. With speculation rampant that the Fed would “finally” raise interest rates, there seemed to be...

Treasury yields continue to fall, making mincemeat of the idea that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates this year. Everything could change, of course, if the incoming economic...

To an economist, the economy can bear no recession. In times of heavy central bank activity, an economy can never be in recession. Those appear to be the only dynamic factors that drive economic...

Weekly Large Trader COT Report: 10 Year US Treasury Note CFTC Futures data shows speculators now in bullish net position 10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large 10-year treasury note...

The spread between the yield on corporate bonds and that on Treasuries passed the 2% mark last Wednesday for the first time in over three years. In the chart above I’ve annotated with red...

Even if your focus is squarely on equities, understanding what’s taking place in other markets is an important factor when it comes to managing a portfolio. It’s often said that the bond...