The National Bank of Canada Analysis

Full-Scale Yen Sell-Off Since LDP Won Japanese Elections By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 18, 2012

A full-scale sell-off of the yen has been underway since the Liberal Democratic Party won a landslide victory in Japan's national elections. The yen reached a new low since April 2011, bottoming out...

Fed Sets New Unemployment Rate Objective At 6.5% By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 16, 2012

The Fed gave itself a new unemployment rate objective Wednesday: 6.5%. It committed to maintaining its rates low as long as unemployment has not reached 6.5 %. In addition to the monthly commitment to...

Manufacturing Sales Down 1.4% In October By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 16, 2012

FACTS: Canada’s manufacturing sales fell 1.4% in October, after having been flat in September. Manufacturers in 12 of 21 industries reported lower sales in October, but more than 60% of the drop...

Fed Announces Buyback Of $40 Billion In Securities Each Month By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 12, 2012

The Federal Open Market Committee, which is in charge of U.S. monetary policy, is wrapping up its meeting today and will announce its decisions at noon. No rate changes are in the cards, and it is...

Fed Expected To Announce Massive Purchase Of Securities By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 12, 2012

The U.S. is back at the forefront today with the FOMC meeting. Most analysts expect the Fed to announce the massive purchase of securities to support economic growth. Operation Twist, which consisted...

Canadian Trade Balance Improved In October By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 12, 2012

FACTS: Canada’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to CAD 0.17 bn in October from a revised CAD 1.0 bn deficit in September (top chart). In October, exports were up $374M (+1.0%) as farm,...

U.S. Small Business Confidence Collapses In November By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 12, 2012

The headline index of the US National Federation of independent business (NFIB) fell to 87.5 in November, the lowest since March 2010. That was also the largest monthly drop on records going back to...

Nexen To Be Sold To The Chinese CNOOC By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 11, 2012

In a move that investors had been eagerly awaiting, the federal government announced on Friday evening that it would greenlight the sale of oil company Nexen to the Chinese CNOOC firm for $15.1...

Canada: 196K Housing Starts In November By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 11, 2012

FACTS: Canadian housing starts decreased to 196.1K units in November from a slightly downwardly revised 203.5K in October. Urban starts decreased to 174.3K from 181.5K the previous month. Starts in...

Last Week's Employment Data Surprisingly Positive, Boosts CAD By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 11, 2012

The employment data released last Friday were a surprise, not once but twice! The U.S. reported 146,000 new jobs in November, despite Hurricane Sandy’s negative impact on the U.S. job market....

U.S. Hiring Pace Maintained In Spite Of Sandy By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 10, 2012

The U.S. economy showed surprising resilience in November with employers adding 147,000 payroll jobs. This performance was all the more impressive given the fact that more than 360,000 people with...

Canadian Employment Surged In November By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 10, 2012

FACTS: Total employment surged 59.3K in November following a slight increase of 1.8K in October. Full-time jobs jumped 55.2K and part-time jobs edged up by 4.1K. Employment in the goods-producing...

The World Peers Over The Cliff By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 10, 2012

Peering over a cliff can give vertigo and this is what seems to be happening to the US economy. Growth stateside is set to decelerate sharply in Q4 partly due to the damage caused by storm Sandy, but...

The BOC Is Sticking To Its Guns For Now By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 05, 2012

The Bank of Canada left interest rates at 1.00% and kept its tightening bias unchanged, i.e. "over time, some modest withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will likely be required, consistent with...

Canada: Output Gap May Persist Past 2014! By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 04, 2012

With Q3 GDP growth ending up four ticks below the Bank of Canada’s 1% estimate for the quarter, coupled with downward revisions to the prior quarters, the central bank now needs Q4 growth of...

Following US Markets, Loonie Traded In Narrow 60-Point Range Last Week By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 04, 2012

Last week the loonie traded in a narrow 60-point range, following the mood in U.S. stock markets. Greece was granted the much-anticipated funding needed to make the payment on December 13, and this...

Canada: GDP Expands 0.6% In 2012 Q3 By The National Bank of Canada - Dec 04, 2012

Canada: In 2012 Q3, GDP expanded merely 0.6% annualized, two ticks short of consensus expectations. To make matters worse, Q2 growth was revised down a tick to 1.7%. Domestic demand was restrained as...