Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Although we would never dispute that markets often pivot on external catalysts, as we noted recently (see here) - they often are just instigators of larger forces at play. For every time that it's...

The trades below have all had a bias for higher rates and inflation and were based on the following views. 1. The ECB would lift growth and inflation expectations. 2. US rates would be higher,...

ReviewThe trend for lower long bond yields has continued among rising geopolitical tensions and the view of lower terminal rates from central banks. In the meantime, short-end rates in the US and...

The Germany 10-Year yield dipped below 1.0% briefly Thursday for the first time, encouraged by the unexpected contraction in Germany's Q2 GDP. Ideas that the area's stagnation in Q2 coupled with...

The no- brainer, can't-miss trade coming into the first of this year was that interest rates were going to rise. 90 Days ago I said that bond prices were breaking out. I shared with members numerous...

Bund bottomed exactly at immediate support of 149.10/05 as expected and rocketed to retest Friday's all time high at 149.84. We topped almost exactly here and of course if this level holds today we...

Ten-Year Government of Canada Bond bottomed just above the next downside target of 137.30 and shot straight back up to 138.05/10 resistance for a selling opportunity with stops above 138.20. So far we...

The hefty cross market moves in linkers/BEIs seen over the summer offer a very good opportunity to position for tighter front-end BEI boxes/real rate spreads. We recommend buying OBLi 2018 versus...

Bund resistance at 149.50/55 held perfectly again yesterday. Below 149.40/35 adds pressure today and risks a slide to immediate support at 149.10/05. This could hold the downside but below here today...

Bobl still overbought short term now with negative divergence on the daily chart but held the 128.69/67 held the downside. A break lower today targets support at 128.60. Failure here today see...

Gilts held 111.85 support and failure to quite fill the gap at 112.24/26 signals further downside pressure this week. Immediate support is 111.85 but a break lower is more negative. Go with the break...

Ten-year bond yields in six euro-area nations ended at a record low on Friday as geopolitical tensions fueled demand for the safest fixed-income securities (before everything was ruled 'fixed' later...

Gilts did gap lower to signal a potential top in the market. We bottomed above 111.85 support at 111.91. Below here today risks 111.66 then good support at 111.56/53 which should hold the downside....

Ten-Year Government of Canada Bond has immediate resistance at 138.05/10 but any shorts need stops above 138.20 for a move towards last week's high at 138.47/53. We are overbought so we should...