Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The interest rate on the 10-Year Treasury Note has moved up a little since the beginning of September. That’s been a reversal of course from this year’s trend. Prior to now, interest...

High blood pressure is widely known as “the silent killer” for good reason. This post is a continuation of our post from early August on liquidity in the bond markets. As an RIA managing...

When one looks at the yields on very short-term U.S. Government debt, yields on the 2-Year and 5-Year notes are up a big percentage over the past three years.Since 2011, the yield on the...

Strategically Shorting BondsI have been shorting the U.S. 10-Year Treasury strategically the last 6 months, buying the oversold yield conditions right before the employment report ramps up yields. It...

High Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA) is a term that now applies to the implementation of the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) in the Basel III Rule. This highly technical mouthful of acronyms and rules...

“If saving money is wrong, I don't want to be right!” - William ShatnerIn a world where bonds and stocks have correlated in an unusually high way, any kind of risk trigger has been...

Large Speculator 10 year note sentiment flips back to bearish levels U.S. 10-Year Treasuries: Large futures market traders and speculators turned their overall net positions back into bearish...

Hopefully readers can see the weekly chart of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield, from the TNX or the CBOE 10-Year Treasury Yield Index contract. It looks like a perfect “hold” or save...

Global economic growth has slowed over the past few years. Economists such as Larry Summers are talking about secular stagnation. If this is happening, then demography may be the best explanation for...

Would you have guessed that 8 months ago the S&P 500 would hit 2,000 and that the Government bond ETF iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury (ARCA:TLT) would be up twice as much as the broad market on...

Weekly CFTC COT Net Speculator Report | 10 Year US Treasury Note Large Speculator positions see bullish total of +7,940 contractsU.S. 10-Year Treasuries: Large futures market traders and speculators...

How to properly value European BondsThis seems to be the biggest question in financial markets for me right now because the math just doesn't add up any way you slice it. When you look at the pricing...

There will be another tap auction of SGBi3109 (June 2025) on 28 August. We recommend buying the bond in the auction, as we continue to recommend real rate flatteners. Despite the recent performance,...