ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The proximity to the US election can favour more deleveraging in FX, raising risks that less liquid currencies will face the pressure reserved for Trump-risk proxies. The US macro calendar picks up...

The oil market sold off aggressively yesterday after Israel’s measured response over the weekend. While it is still not clear if and how Iran will retaliate, the market is clearly of the view that...

Everyone expects more Fed rate cuts in the coming months, but the outcome of the US presidential election could influence their speed and depth. Of course, this is not the only conundrum policymakers...

It looks like Donald Trump is edging ahead in opinion polls – although the outcome of next week’s election remains a toss-up given the polling margin of error. Financial markets, however, seem to be...

THINK Ahead in Developed Markets United States Given the backdrop of 3% growth, low unemployment, equity markets at all-time highs, and inflation still above 2%, you could be forgiven for...

The US dollar lost some ground yesterday on a correction lower in Treasury yields, but upside risks from the US election persist. Donald Trump’s seemingly stronger momentum should translate to higher...

After a 50bp rate cut last month, market speculation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next move is ramping up – and as the looming presidential election adds yet another layer of uncertainty to the...

This is the first BRICS summit since Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE joined the bloc earlier this year. Among many things on the agenda is the issue of reducing reliance on the US dollar in...

USD: Beige Book is probably the biggest threat to the dollar FX markets seem to be positioning for a Trump victory in next month's US presidential election. October seems to have been a good month...

Metals – Gold breaks above $2,700 for first time Gold broke above $2,700/oz for the first time amid concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East and ahead of the US election. Traders are...

The luxury of labour hoarding is coming to an end in the eurozone as corporate profits dwindle. And that’s going to mean wage growth will ease, unemployment will tick up and we’ll see more...

Crude oil is trading flat this morning as the market remains cautious amid the developing situation in the Middle East, although demand concerns remain. Meanwhile, a constructive report by the...

As we had expected, the BoJ raised its policy rate to 0.25% and announced the JGB purchases would be halved by 1Q26. The growth outlook was trimmed modestly for FY24 while the inflation outlook...

Eurozone data continues to challenge the European Central Bank, with German economic contraction and sticky CPI complicating matters. Meanwhile, the Germany 10-Year-United States 10-Year spread has...

Crude oil traded higher this morning on rising geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. A constructive API report also further helped to lift sentiment in the oil market Energy – Oil risk Premium...

With favorable economic data providing officials with greater confidence that US inflation is moving steadily along the right path, we think that Wednesday’s FOMC meeting should offer a clearer hint...